Across 2022, a familiar axiom persisted: when costs rise, households still need to eat. A recent study by Kantar Consulting, published this Tuesday, confirms that consumption remains resilient as health concerns ease, even amid higher prices. Spaniards continue shopping in supermarkets, yet large chains gain an edge by expanding private label offerings, instead of pressuring demand for established brands. In short, retailers are fueling their own assortment to bolster sales, rather than reflecting consumer preference alone. The takeaway from Kantar is clear: when prices climb, people don’t slash food and drink purchases first; they trim spending on other goods and services first.
What becomes visible is a supermarket strategy that aims to stabilize perceived basket value. It does so by boosting the share of private labels or lower-priced products in the shopper’s cart, effectively offsetting price increases without compromising access to essentials.
War in Ukraine and China adds to logistics costs of food exports
Jorge Folch, managing director of Kantar’s Worldpanel division, notes that the normalization of mass consumption should resume as the pandemic recedes. Yet the year began under the shadow of inflation in the European Union, the conflict in Ukraine, rising transportation costs, and the slower rebound in overseas markets. The prevailing sentiment is a dip in consumer confidence, leading to cautious spending on non-essentials.
Experts are especially attentive to how often people are now buying. The majority of consumers have returned to dining out or other away-from-home experiences, but the pace of a full recovery depends on the behavior of heavy shoppers. Even with higher frequency, overall consumption remains below peak levels by a notable margin. This observation comes from Kantar’s out-of-home consumer analytics.
César Valencoso, a weighbridge analyst, highlights that price trajectories are a major concern in the near term. The end of the health crisis, monetary policy shifts, and the toll of the war and transport disruptions all feed into inflation dynamics. Inflation in consumer goods ran around four to five percent on core products between January and April, a figure that sits well below headline rates yet still visible to shoppers. The broader picture shows inflation and demand not perfectly aligned because basic needs continue to drive purchases. Only a portion of households—roughly one in three—are actively adjusting their budgets, but the availability of lower-cost alternatives may push others toward cheaper categories or private labels, potentially amplifying a downselling effect. At present, white-label products hold a substantial market share, exceeding forty percent in some segments.