The Wagner group’s presence in Africa highlights a geopolitical tension centered on finance and power. It is one of the strongest actors in the region, and current signs do not indicate a withdrawal. After the latest coup attempt against Mali’s leadership, Vladimir Putin remains a focal point of regional discussions. Shortly thereafter, Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov announced that the paramilitary group would maintain its operations in Mali. The country has faced over two decades of violence, with terrorist and criminal networks controlling significant northern areas. In recent years, the Malian government has welcomed Russian mercenaries as part of broader efforts to address insecurity. The United States and France remain key players in regional dynamics.
Bea Mesa, a professor and LASPAD researcher at Saint-Louis University in Senegal, argues that the Wagner crisis does not necessarily disrupt Africa’s trajectory. He notes it is too early to gauge the full effects in Mali. He also points out that Wagner’s operations in Africa do not appear to be directly funded by the Kremlin; Mali provides compensation through indirect channels from Russia via local resources. This distinction matters because it shapes how international actors perceive and respond to the evolving security landscape in the region.
The entry of Russia’s mercenaries into Mali marks a shift in the historical balance of influence. Some observers see them challenging France’s long-standing dominance and positioning Russia as a central power on the ground. It’s important to recall that in 2013 France initiated military action in Mali at Bamako’s request to curb advancing armed groups, culminating in Operation Serval which ran until mid-2014. France’ presence persisted through a later operation named Barkhane. By 2022, President Emmanuel Macron signaled a withdrawal, prompting a reassessment of regional security commitments.
Two decades of military engagement have tested Mali’s resilience, with persistently high insecurity and slow socioeconomic improvements. Public support for the French mission has waned, and Mesa describes the intervention as a source of growing distrust. The departure of French forces and the arrival of Wagner mercenaries accelerated after the Malian army-led coup in 2021. Mesa notes that this marked the first time in Mali’s modern history that the military gained broad popular legitimacy to resist traditional power structures like France.
The political shift in Bamako and the protests of 2020 helped redefine national sovereignty, as Mali sought to reduce external influence perceived as eroding its autonomy. Mesa explains that Mali has become a revolutionary state in Africa by breaking with conventional power dynamics and reclaiming sovereignty once perceived as compromised by international intervention.
In this strategic contest, Russia has advantages over France or other Western powers: no colonial legacy to inflame tensions. Russia’s influence in Mali aligns with a broader history of support for anti-colonial movements and continued military cooperation after independence. Analysts argue that Russia’s role includes direct intervention by its mercenaries, alongside broader military diplomacy, which has reshaped the regional security architecture.
Wagner’s shadow in Mali
Brazilian analyst notes that Russia acts in tandem with various actors while Wagner’s presence raises concerns about human rights and civilian safety. The mercenaries have conducted operations that imperil noncombatants, a reality the Malian public is already familiar with as violence persists. The presence of mercenaries and Russia also intersects with resource extraction, including gold and other minerals, highlighting how security and economic interests intertwine in Mali.
Many observers describe a form of cold war playing out in the Sahel, with African states aligning with the United States and France, while others seek diversifications in partnerships that include Russia. The pattern suggests Russia’s growing footprint across the African continent will continue, a trend seen previously in the Central African Republic, Burkina Faso, and Libya.
Although France and the United States have seen shifts in influence, their leverage in the Sahel remains significant. The region’s security landscape now features a fragmented alliance system, with Niger absorbing much of the battlefield power and close ties with Chad still intact. This fragmentation has turned the Sahel into a testing ground for a new balance of international order, with each actor pursuing its strategic goals. Mesa emphasizes that the dynamic persists and that regional actors are navigating a shifting, multi-polar environment that defies simple categorization.
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