Artificial intelligence (AI) is projected to influence around 40% of jobs globally, with implications that could widen existing inequalities. A recent IMF analysis highlights the need to bolster social safety nets to cushion workers through the coming transition and to support those most at risk in the labor market.
AI systems have been part of the workplace for more than a decade, especially to streamline and automate segments of the global production chain. The emergence of generative AI models that can produce text or images, such as the widely discussed tools like ChatGPT, introduces both new risks and new opportunities for economies around the world.
The IMF estimates that up to 40% of jobs could be affected as AI becomes more embedded in business operations. This figure predominantly refers to emerging economies, including large markets like China, Brazil, and India. In lower-income countries, the impact is anticipated to be smaller, around 26% of jobs affected.
Jobs most affected
The IMF’s leadership warned that advanced economies may bear a larger brunt of disruption. In the United States, AI is expected to influence roughly 60% of occupations, though the effects will vary. Some roles may benefit from enhanced productivity and new capabilities, while others face the risk of displacement as automation and AI take on tasks previously performed by humans.
In many cases, AI will substitute certain high-skill tasks, particularly in roles that involve repetitive decision-making or routine problem-solving. This shift could lead to lower demand for some labor while opening space for new kinds of work that require more creativity, strategic thinking, and complex human judgment. The broader implication is a reallocation of work rather than a simple replacement of humans by machines.
The ongoing normalization of AI is unlikely to impact all workers equally. In the IMF assessment, customer-facing and volume-driven roles such as telemarketing are among the most exposed to automation, while occupations like artists or cleaning staff may face less direct pressure from AI adoption. Professions requiring high levels of responsibility and personal interaction, including doctors and lawyers, are likely to integrate AI as part of routine practice rather than be erased by it.
Widening inequality
The IMF analysis stresses that AI-driven productivity gains could, in many scenarios, raise average incomes for a broad swath of workers. Yet if those gains accumulate mainly at the top end of the distribution, income inequality could worsen and the gains may not translate into broad-based improvements in living standards.
Notably, the analysis notes that women and workers with a college education may find themselves more exposed to the upheaval caused by AI, while older workers could face greater barriers to adapting to new workflows. These dynamics underscore the need for targeted policies that support retraining, job matching, and ongoing skill development across the labor force.
Beyond redistribution, the IMF calls for proactive government action to capture the positive potential of AI. Recommendations emphasize sustained investment in innovation by advanced economies and the creation of robust social protection to prevent sharp income declines for vulnerable groups. There is a push for developing and less-developed countries to cultivate a digitally skilled workforce, ensuring that workers can participate in the opportunities AI creates. The analysis also highlights how policy design—ranging from property rights definitions around AI to redistribution and tax measures—will ultimately shape how AI affects income and wealth distribution.