Researchers from the American biotechnology company Ginkgo Bioworks warn that by mid-century the global death toll from diseases that jump from animals to people could rise dramatically, potentially multiplying by as much as twelve compared with today. The findings appear in a recent issue of the science publication BJM Global Health, presenting a sober forecast built on a long view of past outbreaks and their mortal consequences.
The analysis centers on four well known families of viral threats. These include the notorious filoviruses that cause Ebola and Marburg infections, the Nipah virus, Machupo virus, and the SARS 1 coronavirus, the direct precursor to the COVID-19 virus. By focusing on these key pathogens, the researchers aim to map broad patterns in how animal borne viruses have spread and evolved over decades, offering a lens into what risks may lie ahead for global health security.
To build their case, the team compiled a comprehensive database that traces 3,150 disease outbreaks across 24 countries over the period from 1963 to 2019. The events recorded in this dataset culminated in 17,232 deaths, with filovirus infections accounting for the vast majority of these fatalities. The pattern highlighted by the researchers shows not only how frequently outbreaks occur, but how the severity of these events has intensified over time, underscoring the persistent threat posed by these pathogens.
During the study window, the researchers observed that the scale of outbreaks grew by roughly five percent each year, while the associated death rate rose by around nine percent. That combination suggests a compounding effect: outbreaks became more common and more deadly in tandem, a trend that, if continued, would escalate the human toll in the coming decades. The researchers emphasize that even modest shifts in these growth rates can translate into large cumulative impacts when projected over a generation.
According to the scientists, if current trajectories persist, the pathogens analyzed in the study could produce four times as many adverse health events and twelve times as many deaths by the year 2050 compared with 2020. Such projections highlight the fragility of health systems in the face of zoonotic spillover and the importance of sustained surveillance, rapid detection, and robust public health responses to curb transmission and reduce fatalities.
Beyond the numbers, the authors caution that environmental and societal changes may accelerate the emergence of zoonoses. Climate change, deforestation, and shifts in land use are all factors that can disrupt wildlife habitats and bring humans into closer, more frequent contact with animal reservoirs and vectors. The researchers argue that mitigating these drivers, along with strengthening vaccination programs, diagnostic capacity, and epidemiological tracking, will be essential to preventing a future spike in zoonotic disease burden across North America and other regions.