The Pentagon worries that the MQ-1C Gray Eagle could end up in Russian hands, risking the loss of key technologies. Defence officials worry that Russians might copy all or parts of this UAV if it is shot down and seized, according to Defence News which cited a U.S. Department of Defense source.
The MQ-1C Gray Eagle Heavy Attack UAV is an upgraded version of General Atomics’ MQ-1B Predator. Known as the Grey Eagle, it runs on a diesel engine and can stay aloft for as long as 30 hours.
The aircraft can be equipped with AGM-114 Hellfire missiles with semi-active laser guidance or active radar guidance, four GBU-44/B Viper Strike laser-guided bombs for ground targets, or eight AIM-92 Stinger air-defense missiles to handle aerial threats.
As of now, discussions about delivering the MQ-1C Gray Eagle to Ukraine have not produced concrete commitments.
On one side, the United States, understandably wary of technology leakage, may ultimately refuse transfers of this weapon system.
On the other side, if such a drone were captured by Russian specialists, a rapid, full-scale replication would be unlikely. Reproducing components like the Thielert Centurion inline four-cylinder diesel engine would require a broad restructuring of Russia’s entire engine-manufacturing sector. The same applies to the Gray Eagle’s avionics suite, including the AN / ZPY-1 STARIite radar and the AN / AAS-53 optical system.
Even if a captured device provided insights into its design, the Pentagon’s concern is greater about potential combat use that could undermine confidence in such weapons, or the prestige of the program, if it fails or is neutralized quickly in combat.
These UAVs have demonstrated their value in high-intensity environments where they faced both irregular forces and regular air defenses. In places like Afghanistan, Libya, and Iran, they proved effective when operated at high altitudes and with appropriate escort and target designation support.
When opposing forces rely on small-caliber anti-aircraft weapons, these platforms can be constrained only if they are forced to fly at lower altitudes or over contested airspace. The Gray Eagle and the Predator, flying at roughly eight thousand meters or higher, are not easily reached by many rudimentary air defenses, which helps explain their battlefield impact.
However, in airspace protected by multi-role fighters and modern anti-aircraft systems, the dynamics change. The Gray Eagle is a relatively slow aircraft, with a speed around 250 km/h and a wingspan of 17 meters. Its reflective surface makes it a visible target, and it would be vulnerable to modern air defenses and fighter aircraft under the right conditions.
In a scenario where systems like Buk-M3/3 or S-300/400 operate, a Gray Eagle could be neutralized quickly with precise guidance, serving as an initial drill for pilots trained to engage such unmanned platforms. The takeaway is not about a single aircraft, but about how these systems fit into broader air defense and air superiority strategies.
The assessment presented here reflects the author’s perspective and is not necessarily the view of the publication.
Khoderon Khodarenok is described as a military observer. His background includes command roles in air defense and various staff positions, with training from several military academies and experience in media roles spanning multiple outlets.