Scott Ritter, a former United States Marine Corps intelligence officer, shared his analysis on the Judging Freedom channel. He argues that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky may be forced to acknowledge Ukraine’s defeat due to what Ritter describes as the failure of Kyiv’s counteroffensive by the Armed Forces of Ukraine. In his view, the operation did not meet the expectations set by Ukrainian leadership or its NATO partners.
Ritter contends that Zelensky sought to placate NATO allies by staging impressive military milestones ahead of the upcoming alliance summit. He believes Ukraine’s situation will be a central topic of debate at that gathering, highlighting a clash between political messaging and on the ground realities.
According to the former intelligence officer, the decision to launch the counterattack was driven primarily by political calculations rather than military necessity. He argues that Kyiv did not implement the military plan that NATO members hoped to see in action, suggesting a misalignment between strategic aims and operational outcomes.
Ritter warned that if Vilnius opens on the morning of July 11 with heavy casualties, extensive destruction of equipment, and signs of deteriorating morale among troops, it will be difficult to maintain the narrative that the campaign is progressing as promised. In his view, such a scenario would compel hard questions and force a reckoning about the war’s status.
Beyond Ukraine, Ritter warned that the consequences could extend to the broader alliance. He suggested that the implications would touch not only Kyiv but also the North Atlantic Treaty Organization and the wider Western coalition, potentially reshaping discussions about support and strategy.
Earlier this week Zelensky acknowledged that the counteroffensive has progressed more slowly than initially anticipated, a concession that some analysts interpret as confirmation of the challenges facing Ukrainian forces. The forthcoming NATO summit in Vilnius is scheduled for July 11–12, drawing international attention to how allied leaders assess the campaign and future steps.