There is a serious concern about the long-term viability of pensions in Spain. The current model may be reaching a tipping point as its future becomes less predictable. Economist and professor José Ignacio Conde-Ruiz notes that the system has adapted to people living longer, with life expectancy rising from around 78 to about 90 years. He describes this as an intergenerational contract in which current workers support the retirement benefits of past workers over time.
The discussion follows recent news about a very low birth rate. Within a month, the challenge appears to grow more acute. Conde-Ruiz argues for aligning the pension framework with the evolving economy and demographic reality to make retirement more sustainable and secure. He also emphasizes that pensions should not be identical for everyone but should reflect the nature of each person’s work. Though these ideas recur, the current Social Security minister José Luis Escriva has suggested that reform might not be necessary before 2050.
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“Gradual, flexible and compatible retirement”
Conde-Ruiz envisions a pension system that allows a worker to slowly reduce hours and ease out of full-time work. He recalls his father moving from a 40-hour week to nearly zero hours and argues that a dramatic cutback is not the best way to end a career. The goal is a model that is gradual, flexible, and friendly to businesses, enabling a smoother transition rather than a sudden withdrawal from the workforce.
In this vision, retirement would be a staged process, with adjustability built in so people can tailor their exit to health, family needs, and job demands. The idea is to preserve purpose and income at every stage, rather than creating abrupt discontinuities at retirement age.
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The expert also believes the system should be adaptable to different professions. Where some jobs demand high physical effort, the framework should provide more generous options and incentives. Health status should factor into benefit decisions, ensuring that individuals with intense physical workloads are acknowledged for the extra strain. In short, health and job type should influence pension outcomes to reflect real-life conditions.
Conde-Ruiz also argues for protecting existing retirees by preserving their current pensions and ensuring that the calculation of future benefits fully accounts for the entire working life of a person. This approach would deliver a more efficient and stable system as demographic and economic data evolve. Projections from the National Institute of Statistics indicate that by 2070 Spain could have about 15.5 million retirees (those currently over 65) and just over 25 million people of working age (ages 24 to 65), posing a significant demographic challenge for the pension system.
These insights aim to spark a practical conversation about retirement design in countries facing aging populations and shifting labor markets. The goal is a plan that preserves dignity for retirees while maintaining fiscal responsibility for current and future workers. The path forward may require balancing financial sustainability with fair treatment across different careers and life circumstances, ensuring that pensions remain a reliable pillar of financial security for generations to come.