Global warming has become a real headache for farmers. Rising temperatures, droughts, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events plus pests thriving in heat have damaged thousands of hectares of crops worldwide. The economic consequences are obvious for both producers and consumers. Shortages of raw materials drive prices up, feeding inflation across markets.
Demand does not falter during efforts to curb animal protein intake. Imports are rising, adding transport costs and tariffs to an inflationary pressure that remains stubbornly high even as some softening occurs. The euros required to buy a kilo of fruit a few years ago now stretch to buying barely 500 grams.
The first question is how winters have changed. The latest Copernicus EU Earth Observation Program report shows that average winter temperatures in Europe during late 2021 and early 2022 exceeded the 1991–2020 winter average by about one degree.
In Spain, the State Meteorological Service reported alarming findings a few months ago: December 2022 was the hottest month in the entire historical series. Overall, the winter period ranked as the tenth coldest (1961) since records began, while this century saw the fifth warmest winter. This is another poignant sign of warming at a rapid pace.
The natural cycle is disrupted
Trees have noticed the disruption and acted accordingly. For flowering to be sufficient, many species need cold accumulation during winter. If temperatures rise, the natural cycle shifts and fruit quantity and quality can suffer.
In extreme cases, a single bad season can be ruined. Early flowering may leave crops short of pollinating insects, and some plants may struggle to withstand frost.
Researchers have long warned about this. A study by experts from the Polytechnic University of Madrid and the University of Castilla-La Mancha recommends flexible, local adaptation strategies aligned with climate projections to protect fruit viability. The analysis examines almond, plum, apple, peach, olive, and vine trees to understand how climate trends could shape their development. These species matter deeply to the Spanish landscape and economy.
The conclusion is clear: over the next three decades only varieties with low cold requirements will endure. Cherry, olive, and vine crops show more resilience, though challenges remain for the latter two in certain conditions.
Only low cold need varieties can endure in the next 30 years.
On the opposite end are plum, almond, and apple trees, with peach occupying a middle ground. Experts suggest adapting by moving crops to adjacent regions or selecting varieties that can complete their chilling requirements. Developing varieties that tolerate lower chill will support crop viability across regions.
Yet the absence of enough cold is not the only concern for Spanish agriculture. Extreme weather events linked to climate change threaten farmers with droughts, heavy rains, and heat or cold waves, often contributing to declines in production for various species.
When fruit survives, its quality can drop. Flavor, size, color, preservation, and sugar content may all be affected.
Water management in the face of drought
Water challenges have many facets. In Spain, discussions of water scarcity often evoke “water wars,” particularly in arid regions. While no single solution satisfies everyone, experts emphasize the need for a national strategy and investments in infrastructure that move water to areas with the highest agricultural value.
Extreme summers, like those seen in Axarquía, Malaga, have led to severe water stress for crops such as avocados. The Tropical Fruits Association of Spain calls for infrastructure to bring water to productive zones with the greatest impact on national agriculture. Scientists caution that widespread tropical crops demand large water resources, complicating solutions.
Pests destroy 40 percent of global crop production annually
According to a United Nations FAO report, pests erode about 40 percent of world crop production each year, imposing economic costs exceeding 165 billion euros. The fruit fly stands out as a prime example, its population rising rapidly with warming temperatures.
Threats extend beyond yield. Recurrent scientific findings warn that rising temperatures can boost foodborne illnesses. The European Environment Agency notes that climate changes have already shortened growing seasons in many parts of Europe, with flowering and harvests happening earlier. If trends continue, many regions will face ongoing shifts. In 2022, Spain’s stone fruit campaign suffered due to spring frosts.
Science is also turning to genetics to bolster crop resilience. At the Agri-Food Research and Technology Institute (IRTA), researchers developed the “tutti” apple, a red, crunchy variety adapted to hot climates after more than two decades of work, and similar efforts target other crops. The future could be shaped in the lab as well as in the field.
Oil production, a hallmark of southern Spain, is another sector feeling the heat. Estimates from the Union of Andalusian Agri-Food Cooperatives indicate a 40 percent drop in the 2022-2023 campaign, with Jaén especially hard hit. Extreme drought and rising energy costs drive the decline, while projects like RitmeNatura predict substantial economic losses. Olive trees, though hardy, still face altered vegetative cycles and oil composition under new climate regimes. Historically, olive production has depended on mild winters and hot, dry summers, with a balance of temperature around 26–32 degrees Celsius for optimal growth. While a slight temperature rise might seem beneficial in some contexts, accompanying droughts and other changes largely negate any potential gains. Soil moisture and sun exposure further shape the final oil quality.
These shifts underscore the urgent need for resilient strategies across sectors, from orchard planning to water distribution and beyond. The climate reality now calls for informed decisions, practical adaptations, and collaborative action to safeguard Spain’s agricultural heritage and future prosperity.