75% chance in 50 years
The latest eruption of Cumbre Vieja could be a turning point in how volcanic risk is managed in the Canary Islands. Nemesio Pérez, the scientific coordinator of INVOLCAN, notes that this eruption occurred in La Palma, highlighting the region as the only part of Spain exposed to this volcanic hazard. He stresses that without a focused strategy in this area, valuable lessons would be missed for future risk mitigation.
In an interview conducted by EFE, Pérez emphasizes that the eruption in La Palma marks a moment for societal awareness. He argues that the Canary Islands must adopt a forward-looking risk mitigation plan, because the response to this event offers essential insights for both those in power and the general public. The Canary Strategy for Volcanic Risk Mitigation should guide how the islands prepare for future activity, ensuring that lessons learned translate into better prevention and preparedness.
During a December 26, 2021 visit by the Spanish prime minister and the Canary Islands president to La Palma, INVOLCAN’s scientific coordinator explained that the eruption should have signaled earlier the need for a robust volcanic risk framework across the archipelago, given that the Canary Islands are uniquely exposed within the national territory. The aim is to prevent a recurrence of the social and economic damage caused by previous events through proactive planning and public awareness.
Pérez notes that significant efforts are underway to safeguard La Palma, yet he cautions that the root causes of the disruption are not fully addressed. He observes a persistent gap in the public’s perception of volcanic risk in the archipelago and attributes this to decades of development without adequately integrating risk considerations into planning and governance.
According to Pérez, past decades saw development pursued without sufficient attention to imminent hazards, leaving risk reduction measures incomplete. The current push seeks to ensure that future actions to reduce volcanic risk are completed thoroughly and effectively across the Canary Islands.
The report highlights that Tenerife and La Palma stand out as the two most likely islands to face future eruptions, while the media and agencies note the long history of volcanic activity in the archipelago. The paper also points out that a future eruption within a 50-year window could be likely, with probabilities shown for each island. La Palma shows the highest estimated likelihood, followed by Tenerife, with other islands like El Hierro and Lanzarote also on the radar of risk researchers.
International bodies such as UNESCO and the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth encourage the creation of volcanic hazard maps and multi-disciplinary monitoring programs. They also stress the need for contingency plans that educate the population and minimize loss of life. Despite these recommendations, the perception of risk remains weak in the archipelago, and ongoing public funding for training programs and coordinated research has been inconsistent. Political support for adopting comprehensive risk management resolutions has sometimes been limited, and collaboration among Spanish research groups remains scattered.
There is also pressure from the tourism sector to avoid engaging in discussions about volcanic risk, and a lack of coordination among research teams continues to hinder progress. Civil Protection has not consistently supported comprehensive contingency exercises or the full development of risk response activities.
INVOLCAN proposes a series of Canarian Volcanic Risk Reduction Strategy workshops and meetings. These would bring together public authorities, safety and emergency managers, health and social representatives, educators, journalists, regional planners, tourism stakeholders, business leaders, economists, and legal professionals. The goal is to align all public efforts to improve risk management, establish legal tools that sustain improvement, and deepen understanding of volcanic impact on the Canary Islands over the next generation.
Energy, water, transportation, and communications sector representatives would also participate in these workshops. The focus will be on sharing information about volcanic activity, risk management, and developing a unified approach to public communication about volcanic hazards. The overarching aim is to combine public efforts to strengthen risk management, create legal mechanisms that ensure ongoing improvement, and build knowledge about the long-term effects of volcanic activity in the archipelago over the next 50 years.
The challenges call for a stronger emphasis on risk perception and education to foster both individual and collective behavioral change. A robust communication program linking managing bodies, institutions, and people is essential for disaster risk reduction. Pérez insists that public administrations must allocate resources to support this critical document; without it, the lessons from this eruption and from Canary Islands risk management may fade away.
Researchers from INVOLCAN, including Nemesio Pérez, Pedro Hernández, and Luca D’Auria, presented a paper titled Lessons from the last eruption of Cumbre Vieja: the need for a strategy to reduce volcanic risk in the Canary Islands. The work was shared at the eleventh edition of a major international conference on volcanic risk management, held in Crete from June 12 to June 17. The presentation underscored the urgency of a strategic framework that transcends local incidents and informs broader regional resilience planning.
Overall, the study covers Tenerife, La Palma, El Hierro, and Lanzarote, noting the Canary Islands’ long history of volcanic activity. It highlights that the 2021 eruption ranks among Europe’s most significant events in the last 75 years. Projections from INVOLCAN estimate a 75 percent chance of a future eruption within the next five decades for the archipelago, with La Palma showing around 48.7 percent and Tenerife about 39.4 percent. This evidence reinforces the call for a coordinated risk reduction strategy rather than piecemeal measures.
Both UNESCO and the International Association of Volcanology advocate for hazard maps and multidisciplinary monitoring, paired with education and contingency plans aimed at reducing casualties. Yet public perception remains fragile, and sustained support from authorities for risk education and preparedness programs is crucial. A well-coordinated approach would also require collaboration among Spain’s diverse research groups to align methodologies and results. The plan would further integrate civil protection exercises with long-term risk reduction goals, strengthening the archipelago’s resilience against future volcanic events.
Ultimately, INVOLCAN envisions workshops that bring together professionals from multiple sectors to share knowledge, align objectives, and drive sustained improvements in volcanic risk management. The aim is not merely to react to events but to build a culture of preparedness that protects lives, livelihoods, and communities across the Canary Islands for decades to come.