“Russia should know that a nuclear war cannot be won, and therefore should never be fought,” has long been a repeated refrain from NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg. Is Vladimir Putin bluffing when he threatens to use nuclear weapons if the West deploys troops to fight in Ukraine? Many allied countries view Moscow’s warning as a political pressure tool meant to intimidate and erode allied confidence. While no risk can be tagged as zero, the likelihood of a full-scale nuclear escalation remains low in the eyes of many partners.
“Are we truly prepared for a nuclear war?” was the question posed to Putin in an interview conducted before Russian elections that the European Union does not regard as free or fair. “From a technical standpoint, yes, we are prepared,” the Russian president answered. This marked what some outlets count as the eleventh warning since the Kremlin launched its invasion in February 2022.
“(Western nations) must understand that we also possess weapons capable of striking targets on their soil. They should recognize that trying to frighten the world risks a nuclear confrontation and the destruction of civilization. Do they not get it?” the Russian leader told reporters in late February, in the wake of comments by French President Emmanuel Macron about possible deployments of troops to Ukraine.
“No Indications Yet”
In an Alliance where every word is weighed and restraint is paramount, Moscow’s messages have not gone unnoticed. “To us, this reads as a reaffirmation of Russia’s nuclear doctrine by Mr. Putin. We have no indications that Russia plans to use nuclear weapons, but we will keep a close watch on the situation,” said a senior NATO official quoted by El Periódico de Cataluña. The official described such rhetoric as irresponsible.
“This kind of irresponsible rhetoric is not how a nuclear-armed state speaks. In the past we have spoken to Russia directly and privately about the consequences of using a nuclear weapon,” the same sources noted, without detailing potential outcomes. NATO, which regularly conducts nuclear deterrence exercises, anchors its posture on the capabilities of the United States, the United Kingdom, and France. The alliance maintains that deploying nuclear weapons would be an unacceptable step that would fundamentally change the nature of the conflict.
Intimidation from Moscow
Other allied voices frame Moscow’s nuclear narrative within an imperial mindset and its deliberate effort to sway decision-making to deter direct Western or European intervention in Ukraine. A red line is drawn: any escalation of Western military support could trigger catastrophic consequences.
For instance, Estonia’s prime minister, Kaja Kallas, acknowledged that Russia’s aim is to use this threat to frighten and pressure. She emphasized that Russia’s objective is to intimidate, and in some places the tactic has achieved traction. Josep Borrell, the European Union’s head of diplomacy, echoed concerns that Russia’s actions signal a broader war posture against the West and that Moscow may persist with its military operations in Ukraine.