The Red Sea crisis has persisted for months, and the outlook remains unsettled. Major carriers such as Maersk and CMA CGM have warned that the disruption caused by Houthi attacks in Yemen could stretch for an extended period. To blunt the impact on their logistics networks, many operators have reacted by increasing vessel speeds, a move aimed at preserving schedules and reliability for shippers.
As more lines—Nippon Yusen Kaisha among them, Japan’s leading shipping group—opt to bypass the Red Sea and its gateway between Europe and Asia, carriers are seeking safer routes around the African coast, skirting the Cape of Good Hope before rejoining the Suez Canal. Tracking data from Alphaliner shows that by January 15, the crisis had prompted 338 ships to divert their paths.
More distance, more speed
The shift to a safer corridor along the African route inevitably lengthens the voyage. The distance grows by roughly 6,500 kilometers, and the total travel time increases by about ten to twelve days. In response, many companies have raised ship speeds. Alphaliner reports an average speed uptick of as much as one and a half knots, bringing average speeds to around 16.5 knots. The Valencia Port Foundation notes that this adjustment can shave about a week from total transit time compared with routes through the Suez Canal. Yet the speed increase also carries economic and environmental downsides.
Choosing the African route already consumes around 30% more fuel than transiting via the Egyptian canal and yields a similar rise in pollutant emissions, according to port and industry sources. Pushing speeds higher worsens fuel burn and operating costs for carriers. In response, liners have introduced surcharges such as transit disruption surcharges and emergency contingency surcharges. The high season, together with the approach of the Lunar New Year, is tightening container availability in Asia and contributing to higher costs. Credit and risk assessments indicate ocean freight rates have surged by nearly 300% under this pressure.
Better location than Covid
Nevertheless, there are forward-looking signs. The Valencia Port Foundation observes that the Red Sea disruption comes at a moment when the container market shows possible signs of excess capacity. This suggests the crisis could be less damaging than the worst period of the Covid-19 disruption. Ports have been able to reduce idle fleet and maintain operations. Alphaliner notes a fall in idle ships by about 81,254 twenty-foot equivalent units in the past two weeks, while the maintenance downtime for containers potentially dropped by roughly 106,220 TEU during the same period.