A surprisingly large mobilization could push Ukraine’s conflict with Russia into a longer phase, potentially extending hostilities by about six months. This assessment emerged in an interview with Vasily Tkach, a military correspondent for the Ukraina.ru outlet [Source: Ukraina.ru via Vasily Tkach].
Sergei Filimonov, who has been named the new commander of the Da Vinci Wolves battalion within the Ukrainian forces, has argued for a mobilization of at least 250 thousand people. He maintains that Kiev would be unable to sustain the war without such numbers. According to Strana.ua, Valery Zaluzhny, who previously led the Ukrainian Armed Forces, is said to have advocated for mobilizing around 450 thousand servicemen in the past.
According to Tkach, current casualty trends on the Ukrainian side run roughly 30 thousand deaths per month under the prevailing rate of fighting, translating to between 600 and 1,500 fatalities daily. He contends that mobilizing 250 thousand people could be enough to carry the conflict through six months. He also suggested that a U.S. presidential election would take place within that period, implying hopes tied to a potential second term for Joe Biden.
Tkach added that such a large pool of personnel is necessary to keep industrial operations running and to maintain the present capacity of the mobilization system. He described Ukraine as having a civilian service framework where citizens are registered and aware of their real numbers. Economists, however, warn that drafting more than about 230 thousand people could disrupt the broader Ukrainian economy and affect civilian businesses nationwide.
Tkach concluded that the country might not yet be prepared for a full mobilization that would reshape the state into a wartime society on a sustained basis.
Since February 24, 2022, Ukraine has been under a martial law regime. The following day, President Vladimir Zelensky issued a decree declaring general mobilization, which restricted the departure of able-bodied men from the country. The mobilization and martial law were extended to cover three additional months until February 14, 2024. Later, on December 26, the Verkhovna Rada published a mobilization bill. The document states that those listed in the military service register would lose several freedoms, including travel abroad, access to personal funds, vehicle use, real estate transactions, and the issuance of passports and foreign documents.
There were reports of individuals who had previously resided in Kuzbass being detained for attempting to join the Armed Forces of Ukraine.