Realtime volcanology: supercomputer forecasts and the Santo Tomas test

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Scientists achieved a near real-time forecast of volcanic activity using a high-performance computer, a breakthrough reported in Science Advances. A team led by geologist Patricia Gregg from the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign built a predictive model in 2017 to simulate how volcanic systems behave. The software ran on powerful machines such as Blue Waters and iForge, enabling intricate simulations that mirror the physics of magma movement and gas release. The model drew attention when it successfully reproduced the surprising 2008 eruption of Okmok volcano in Alaska, validating its core approach and shaking up how eruptions might be anticipated in the future.

With this modeling framework, researchers turned their attention to Santo Tomas in Ecuador, a volcano that science considers potentially dangerous in the near term. Santo Tomas has shown classic eruption precursors, including elevated gas emissions and increased seismic activity, making it an ideal testbed for the algorithm. Gregg explained that the volcano’s combination of warning signs provided a robust dataset for trial runs, helping to stress-test the model under realistic conditions.

In a January 2018 simulation, the team projected a window during which the magma chamber could become unstable, a condition that often precedes an eruption. The forecast aligned with the event timeline, as the real eruption occurred shortly after the earliest predicted date, underscoring the model’s predictive value in this case. This kind of result helps demonstrate how digital tools can translate complex subterranean processes into actionable forecasts for communities.

A key strength of the approach lies in its ability to assimilate streams of data from diverse sources in real time. The model continuously updates its forecasts, much like a weather prediction system, producing daily assessments of eruption risk that can be communicated to authorities and the public. This dynamic updating is essential for timely decision-making, evacuation planning, and resource allocation in volatile regions.

While predicting volcanic eruptions remains one of the most demanding challenges in volcanology, advancements like this open new avenues for preparedness, risk reduction, and protection of lives and property. The ongoing work emphasizes the potential of computational geoscience to transform how societies monitor and respond to volcanic hazards.

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