Unsuccessful attempts to mount an armed insurrection by the Wagner mercenary group and its sudden appearance in Belarus caught European leaders off guard. They watched with concern as the possibility of troop regrouping near the Baltic states—Latvia, Lithuania, and Poland—loomed on the horizon. “With Yevgeny Prigozhin and an unknown number of highly trained fighters who may join him, we are watching this very closely,” noted a Latvian spokesperson. The prime minister emphasized that the situation could threaten regional stability, leading to tighter border surveillance and stronger control measures. Krisjanis Karins, a longtime ally of Ukraine within the EU, spoke on the first day of the European Council about the rising risk near EU borders. [Citation: EU council remarks, European security briefings]
During the opening day of the Brussels summit, unrest and anxiety over Wagner’s activities and the Ukraine crisis dominated discussions. The Finnish prime minister, who would hand the presidency to Spain on July 1, urged vigilance about the developments in Russia, Moscow, and Belarus. He warned that even if the action appeared to be an internal Russian matter, its consequences could reverberate across the European Union, especially if the chaos spread to Belarus, a country whose leaders have repeatedly pressed for the Russian military to withdraw or refrain from deploying tactical nuclear weapons. [Citation: EU summit press conference]
Diplomatic channels noted that several European leaders pointed to Washington during the meeting. Analysts described the Kremlin-Minsk-Wagner situation as a volatile mix with the potential to destabilize the region. The Baltic states were among the most concerned. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda spoke about the danger of Wagner’s presence in Belarus, warning that neighboring countries could face greater instability if the group’s forces were deployed there. Earlier, Nausėda had traveled to Kyiv with Poland’s president Andrzej Duda to discuss the evolving security landscape. [Citation: Baltic leaders statements]
Putin weakened but a danger
Experts agreed that while Vladimir Putin emerged from the crisis weakened, that very weakness could translate into new and unpredictable risks. The question remained: who orchestrated the escalation, and what comes next for Russia’s internal power dynamics? NATO’s secretary general and the EU’s top diplomat both noted cracks and divisions within the Russian system, though they cautioned it was too early to draw firm conclusions. Some observers argued that Russia will pursue greater domestic consolidation, potentially reshaping its approach to governance. [Citation: NATO briefing; EU foreign policy briefings]
European leaders stressed that the continent should not feel immune from Russia’s strategic moves. Germany’s chancellor cautioned that the EU would remain watchful, emphasizing that the objective is not regime change in Russia but understanding and managing the broader consequences. Uncertainty persisted about how many Wagner forces would end up in Belarus or other locations, and what kinds of support—financial or military—might be required to address the evolving crisis. [Citation: European Council communique]
In parallel, the European Union prepared for Ukraine’s security needs. Kyiv received renewed reaffirmations of support via a video briefing from President Volodymyr Zelensky, and Spain’s prime minister, as rotating EU president, planned a high-profile visit. The Twenty-Sevens agreed to pursue security guarantees for Ukraine and to explore long-term commitments that would help deter aggression while facilitating Ukraine’s resistance to destabilization. The conclusions indicated a readiness to reassess modalities in ways that respect the defense policies of diverse member states. This approach also reflected sensitivity toward neutral voices within the bloc. [Citation: EU summit conclusions]
The EU also signaled readiness to broaden diplomacy with third countries, aiming for broad international backing for Zelensky’s peace plan and a potential global summit to discuss it. The European Commission was tasked with proposing options for the use of frozen assets to support Ukraine’s rebuilding efforts, with Brussels signaling that concrete steps would be proposed before the summer break. [Citation: EU policy resolutions]