Public Debt Dynamics: Spain’s Debt-to-GDP Trend and June Financing Snapshot

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Debt-to-GDP ratio, calculated using nominal GDP from the last four quarters, stood at 116.8% in the second quarter of 2022 according to the monetary authority.

Last year, public debt rose by 3.6 percent, increasing by 50,677 million euros due to lower income and higher expenses linked to the pandemic crisis and more recently the war in Ukraine.

In a statement, the Ministry of Economy stressed that the debt-to-GDP ratio continued to decline in the second quarter, easing from 117% and marking the first drop since September 2020, with the ratio at 116.8% of GDP through June.

The ministry noted that the reduction in the public debt ratio persisted in the second quarter, citing a well-developed financing program for the Treasury of the Kingdom of Spain in 2022, driven by faster economic growth.

As of today, 69.2% of the total emissions program for the year has been implemented, along with 71.7% of medium and long-term issuances.

It also highlighted a clear slowdown in debt growth year over year from the peaks reached during the pandemic.

From the perspective of Nadia Calviño, the trend in recent quarters aligns with the Stabilization Program estimate of a 115.2% debt-to-GDP ratio for this year, released last April.

monthly raise

The primary driver of the monthly debt increase in June was a higher level of indebtedness at the state level and, to a lesser extent, at autonomous communities. Municipalities reduced their debts slightly. Social Security debt remained broadly stable in the sixth month of the year.

In June, state debt reached 1.294 billion euros, up 1.44% in just one month, a historic spike that added 18,433 million euros over the last twelve months, for a 4.8% rise year over year.

CCAA and municipal debt on the rise

On its own, autonomous communities increased their debt in June compared to May, reaching 316,647 million euros, an increase of about 2,972 million euros and an approximate 1.5% annual rise.

Social Security indebtedness stayed flat at 99,185 million euros in June, just two million more than in May, yet up 8% in the last year and remaining at a maximum level.

The Bank of Spain explains that the increase in Social Security indebtedness last year was due to state loans to the General Treasury to finance the budget imbalance highlighted by the Covid-19 crisis and the Ukraine conflict.

Finally, municipalities recorded debt of 22,848 million euros in June, down 0.53% from the previous month while showing a 0.8% recovery year over year.

of Spain. This summary reflects a snapshot of the public debt dynamics in mid-2022, with ongoing monitoring of fiscal adjustments and financing strategies across government layers.

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