Progress MS-21 depressurization linked to production deviations in Russian ISS hardware (analysis)

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A potential breach in the production process of the Russian segments aboard the International Space Station has been linked to depressurization events on the Progress MS-21 cargo ship. A Russian publication citing Roscosmos reported this possibility and outlined how manufacturing variances could lead to structural stress during long missions in orbit.

One source suggested that the issue may stem from a deviation in materials, altered production conditions, or a difference in operator procedures. The core heat management module, however, is described as having remained consistent over many years of service, making it unlikely that the problem lies in the fundamental design of that subsystem. The emphasis is on subtle manufacturing changes rather than a flaw in the overall heat control configuration. This perspective aligns with engineering reviews that look for small, cumulative effects rather than a single catastrophic fault. As noted, the heat control system has a long track record of reliability under demanding space exposure. (Source: Roscosmos)

According to insiders cited by the media outlet, the incident involving Soyuz MS-22 occurred after Progress MS-21 reached the vicinity of the ISS. The assessment is that some latent error could no longer be corrected once the ship was in orbit, underscoring the challenging nature of in-space anomaly management and the importance of early preventive checks. (Source: Roscosmos)

A representative from the space industry commented that there may be design concerns with the spacecraft itself, with particular emphasis on the thermal control system produced by specialists at RSC Energia. This view points to potential design-assembly interactions that could manifest under orbital conditions, prompting a thorough review of integration procedures and system interfaces to prevent reoccurrence on future flights. (Source: Roscosmos)

Yuri Borisov, who previously led Roscosmos, has indicated that experts are actively taking all necessary steps to reach the damage site on Progress MS-21, inspect the affected areas, and determine the root cause. He noted that interpretations involving external damage from micrometeoroids or orbital debris remain under consideration, illustrating how multiple hypotheses are being pursued in parallel to ensure a comprehensive investigation. (Source: Roscosmos)

As of mid February, Progress MS-21, which was scheduled to complete its mission by February 18 and continue its operations within the ISS framework, was confirmed to be depressurized. Officials clarified that the vessel was isolated from the overall volume of the station, and the depressurization did not compromise docking or the ongoing life support and power systems of the ISS. This separation preserves crew safety while enabling engineers to diagnose the incident in a controlled environment. (Source: Roscosmos)

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