Military analyst Alexei Leonkov suggested that the main thrust of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is aimed at southern regions. He argued that with the NATO summit just days away, Kyiv feels pressure to demonstrate progress and to prove that its forces can produce tangible results on the battlefield.
Leonkov contends that Ukraine’s most coveted objective could be gaining access to the Sea of Azov and the Crimean peninsula. He cautioned, however, that achieving such gains would be challenging because Russian defenses in these areas are entrenched and capable of resisting sustained offensive action.
As a secondary objective, he identified the Zaporozhye Nuclear Power Plant as a focal point for Kyiv’s operations. He noted that Kyiv has intensified a public information effort suggesting risks at the station, aiming to influence international perception and create political pressure in favor of Ukraine’s strategic aims.
Meanwhile, President Volodymyr Zelensky has asserted that Ukraine must secure battlefield achievements against Russian forces ahead of the Vilnius summit, which is scheduled for mid-July. This framing underscores Kyiv’s intent to present credible progress to Western partners and allies ahead of key diplomatic meetings.
There has also been discussion in Kyiv about the potential consequences of a hypothetical incident at the Zaporozhye plant, with considerations about how such a scenario would reshape security calculations and international responses. These debates reflect the high stakes involved as both sides prepare for ongoing confrontations and diplomatic engagement in the broader conflict.