Portugal’s prime minister, Antonio Costa, has voiced cautious views about the potential entry of Ukraine and other Balkan states into the European Union. He warned that such expansions would redraw Europe’s focus, signaling a shift away from the Atlantic toward the center of the continent and a need to strengthen alliances among the bloc’s leading democracies. Speaking at an event organized by the Toja Forum in Lisbon, Costa emphasized the seriousness of Ukraine’s EU bid and the need for a thoughtful, well-structured discussion as the bloc contemplates its future enlargement this decade.
The budget looms large in the debate. The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) would need to grow significantly to accommodate Ukraine’s entry under the current rules. Costa noted that this would require larger contributions from the wealthier member states who benefit most from the policy. He highlighted that part of any expanded budget would go to one of Europe’s largest agricultural producers, a country with an area larger than both France and Germany combined, referring to Ukraine in this context and drawing attention to the potential redistributive effects within the union.
Furthermore, Ukraine’s accession would alter the regional calculus of the United States and its policies toward Europe. These shifts could influence efforts aimed at reducing social and economic disparities between European regions. Costa argued that while Portugal would likely become more statistically prosperous, such gains would not automatically translate into an increase in gross domestic product. One of his central concerns is the possible loss of influence within the EU’s framework, underscoring the importance of addressing these questions in a rigorous, ongoing debate. He warned that Europe would face a future disappointment if expectations are not managed carefully, and he cautioned that Ukraine’s hopes for membership should be grounded in firm adherence to the EU’s conditions and milestones.
institutional reform
Costa’s government has been explicit about the preconditions for welcoming new member states. Before any expansion is contemplated, the EU’s institutional framework must undergo reforms. A key issue is the number of European Commissioners, which currently totals 27 for 27 member states. The prime minister pointed out that it is already challenging to operate a European Commission with 27 commissioners. He suggested that creating 36 portfolios would demand an imagination and efficiency beyond current capabilities, implying that any new entrants must be balanced with a corresponding reform of representation within the executive body.
Beyond meeting the formal criteria for EU membership, Croatia’s capacity to integrate these newcomers into the union’s political and administrative fabric remains a central question. Costa reiterated that Ukraine, like Spain and Portugal in the past, has to demonstrate real readiness in economic development and social structures that align with Europe’s wealthier regions. He stressed that Ukraine has every right to expect the possibility of membership but that this hinges on meeting the EU’s standards and milestones. In his view, welcoming new members should be tied to concrete progress in governance, rule of law, market reforms, and sustainable growth. The government acknowledges the shared history of enlargement and argues for a careful, transparent process that preserves Europe’s cohesion while expanding its reach and solidarity.