The discussion around Russia’s birth rate continues to headline policy debates. Tatyana Butskaya, who serves as First Deputy Chairman of the State Duma Committee on Family, Women and Children, has become a leading voice in coordinating the ONF initiative about family formation. She argues that the country’s demographic dynamics have shifted since the generation born in the early 1990s reached reproductive age. That cohort shows signs of aging out of peak fertility, and the annual number of births has begun to decline as that generation ages. This assessment has been reported by URA.RU.
Butskaya notes that the 1990s-born generation remains of childbearing age, but the pool of potential new parents is narrowing each year because there are fewer births. The implication is clear: Russia faces ongoing pressure on population growth that requires policy attention and strategic responses.
She highlights a renewed emphasis on birth support programs, especially for families contemplating a second child. The focus now is on improving access to incentives and services that can encourage families to expand. One enduring policy instrument that remains central is the maternity capital program, which has historically provided significant assistance to families and children. In the contemporary context, the program has been cited as a meaningful driver in supporting childbearing and child-rearing, with substantial cumulative contributions to population growth.
Independent researchers have long discussed the challenge of stabilizing Russia’s population at around 146 million. Analyses have suggested that achieving this target would require a steady influx of migrants. Estimates from demographic studies have proposed a broad range of annual immigration, from several hundred thousand to over a million newcomers, as a potential pillar for demographic stability. This line of reasoning underscores the intertwined nature of birth rates and migration in shaping long-term population forecasts. [Citation: URA.RU]