Population Dynamics and Immigration in Russia: An Analytical Overview
A study by researchers at the National Research University Higher School of Economics indicates that stabilizing Russia’s population around 146 million would require attracting between 390,000 and 1.1 million immigrants annually. This conclusion comes from work prepared by the Demography Institute and published by the university’s affiliated journal. The assessment underscores the central role of immigration in population stability, presenting a range of scenarios for policy consideration. (Source attribution: Demography Institute, Higher School of Economics)
Across various fertility and mortality trajectories, the annual compensatory migration growth needed to maintain population stability between 2021 and 2023 is estimated to lie between 460,000 and 1,200,000 people. This range could be two to six times higher than the most realistic migration projections and between 1.5 and 4.5 times higher than lower-migration scenarios, according to the researchers. (Source attribution: Demography Institute, Higher School of Economics)
The analysis stresses that population growth in Russia cannot be achieved without sustained immigration. Under favorable conditions, with an average of 2.5 births per woman and life expectancy reaching 85.7 years for men and 90.5 years for women, a steady influx of migrants would be required through 2036, with population gains continuing through 2026 and beyond.
In a worst-case scenario, where birth rates decline to 1.4 children per woman (still higher than levels observed in Italy, Spain, and Greece) and life expectancy falls to 74.9 years for men and 83.6 years for women, maintaining population stability would demand substitutive migration at a rate of about 1.1 million people per year. Failing to sustain this level could lead to a population decline of about 100 million, ultimately bringing the total to roughly 67.4 million by the end of the century. (Source attribution: Demography Institute, Higher School of Economics)
At the start of 2023, the population was estimated at 146.45 million, about 0.5 million lower than in early 2022. Data indicates a continued decline since 2018. The most realistic scenario presented suggests a gradual decrease to around 131 million over the next five decades, followed by a gradual rise to approximately 137.5 million by century’s end. (Source attribution: Demography Institute, Higher School of Economics)
Earlier notes indicated that proposals would be shared with the president to outline strategies aimed at supporting population growth in Russia. (Source attribution: Demography Institute, Higher School of Economics)