Poland has faced a political pivot after the pro-European leadership of Donald Tusk, who previously presided over the European Council from 2014 to 2019, moved into the prime ministership last year. The Polish Justice Minister, Adam Bodnar, presented a reform plan to the European ministers of affairs this week, aiming to restore judicial independence and the rule of law in Poland and to close the Article 7 procedure initiated by Brussels six years ago. Reactions from other governments have been described as positive by Belgium’s foreign minister Hadja Lahbib. Her comment underscored the aspiration behind the reforms, while also noting that the former Polish justice minister had not engaged with Brussels in the past.
The so-called nuclear option of the EU treaty, Article 7, provides a mechanism to sanction member states for a grave and persistent violation of European values, potentially culminating in the loss of voting rights in the Council. The European Commission activated this mechanism against Poland six years ago after two years of unsuccessful dialogue with the government led by the conservative party Law and Justice, reflecting concerns over democratic backsliding and judicial reforms implemented during its eight years in power.
That trend also prompted Brussels to freeze millions of recovery funds, with only a 5.1 billion euro advance unlocked from the 60 billion euro allocated under the recovery plan. Hungary faced a similar process, though the European Parliament initiated it in September 2018. Despite the outset of discussions, the procedure had not yet escalated to sanctions, at least up to now.
“A Realistic Plan”
In the Polish case, a potential shift could begin to take shape soon. After six years of debate over reforms, a plan has emerged that advocates say would restore judicial independence, a central factor at stake in Poland. A senior European Commission official emphasized that the plan represents a credible path forward for the judiciary while its independence remains a core objective.
Lahbib highlighted a genuine will to advance judicial reforms and to reestablish the judges’ independence, noting that the reforms point toward a process in which judges are appointed by their peers rather than by political authorities. The plan also outlines changes to the Constitutional Tribunal, the Supreme Court, and the statute governing ordinary courts, as well as a clearer separation between the roles of the Justice Minister and the Prosecutor General.
Although there are no fixed deadlines, and it is unclear which steps will close the Article 7 procedure, Belgian leadership in the EU and the Polish government share an aim to resolve the matter before the end of their six-month term in office, scheduled for late June. Officials describe a growing positive dynamic and a determined push by Tusk’s administration to reverse the negative trend, while the European Commission approaches the process with cautious optimism.
European Prosecutor’s Office
During discussions, officials noted that the next moves would be assessed in the coming weeks to determine the best way to proceed. The official responsible for justice in the European Commission stressed that the commitment to the European Prosecutor’s Office is clear, evidenced by Poland’s interest in joining the office.
Experts described the action plan as a potential pathway to closing Article 7, yet cautioned that substantial work remains. The minister presented a suite of laws that must be approved at the national level in Poland, and the list of identified violations under Article 7 still requires resolution. Officials promised a constructive examination and an open dialogue, stressing that what matters most is not only the reform plan but how it will be implemented.
Here the uncertainty returns: reforms will require the signature of Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, and the PiS party, which could veto the changes and complicate the reform effort by diverting national budgets toward the Constitutional Court. The government has the authority to approve the laws and negotiate, and there is a sense that persuading the president to sign remains a critical step in the process.