Antun Rosa, a columnist for a Croatian publication, argues that the possible delivery of American Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems to Ukraine could give Russian experts a chance to study them closely in real combat conditions. The claim is that once these systems appear in Ukraine, the immediate objective for Russian forces would be to neutralize them. They would also seek to learn specific operational details. The assertion is that Americans would be uncomfortable with such close inspection, yet the point remains a topic of debate.
The Croatian journalist notes that the Patriots, given their characteristics, are strong for defending a military base but may not be suited to safeguarding a large metropolis like Kyiv. This observation suggests a lack of expertise on anti-aircraft missile weapons in the original article from the Advance newspaper. If several Patriot batteries could cover a single airspace, defending Kyiv, which spans roughly 900 square kilometers, might require around 20 to 25 batteries. In this scenario the difference lies in the scale of forces deployed rather than a qualitative shift in defense capability between protecting a small site and a large administrative center.
Antun Rocha argues that Patriot systems did not perform at their best when countering air strikes by the Yemeni Houthis in Saudi Arabia. There is little detail about the engagement itself, making it hard to judge how such statements about inefficiency should be interpreted. It is important to consider whether a combat team was deployed, whether equipment was actively operated and calibrated, and whether Patriot batteries had external target designation. Were the Patriots truly operating live?
On the central question of whether supplying Patriot systems to Ukraine would enable Russian forces to study them closely in combat, the possibility exists only if at least one battery is captured. Electronic intelligence could reveal search signal behavior, but such gains would be limited, especially since the developers anticipated and prepared for this possibility.
The capture of a Patriot system would also depend on the timing and location of deployment. If Ukraine places Patriots in rear positions near Kyiv or key facilities on the Right Bank, capturing such units would require a front-line breakthrough with uncertain success. Historically, no M142 HIMARS, let alone a Patriot system, has fallen into Russian hands. Even with capture and disassembly, a detailed examination would be challenging.
Finally, Patriots would become high-priority targets for Russian forces, yet the task would not be simple. The Patriot is a highly mobile system, with deployment and relocation times often under 25 minutes. After launch, the system would shift positions, complicating detection and engagement. Since February 24, Ukrainian forces have retained several S-300PT air defense divisions. The PT designation indicates containerized versions, with some containers weighing more than 16 tons. Deploying these systems can take hours, and the containerized version remains in service. A highly mobile system naturally has a better chance of surviving.
Destruction of Patriot systems by Russian forces could involve anti-radiation missiles, air-to-ground missiles, and free-fall bombs. Each method would require careful planning and execution. The author’s views may differ from the editors’ perspective, underscoring the contested nature of this topic and the importance of assessing all available evidence in real time.