Inside central station Kyiv, the Christmas tree lights flicker as they do every year. This season, though, the glow isn’t powered by the grid alone; a passenger exercise bike’s dynamo drives them, and an electric train car salvaged from the ruins keeps some momentum going. In Irpin, one of Kyiv’s suburbs faced heavy bombardment in the war’s early days. The Russian army sought to seize the capital, and the Kremlin targeted energy infrastructure across the country. Frequent cuts to water, power, and heating have left many in darkness, yet the conflict endures with stubborn endurance on the front lines. Winter has blurred the war into a stalemate, but many expect this to be temporary.
“We’re at a dead point,” notes Andreas Umland, analyst at the Stockholm Center for Eastern European Studies. “No fresh offensive statements have emerged. Both sides seem to be regrouping, preparing for renewed moves. After months of all-out fighting, both sides have been weakened.” By late October, Moscow acknowledged a serious shortage of weapons needed to supply its army in Ukraine, a confession that aligns with British intelligence assessments about gaps in artillery and precision missiles in Russian arsenals.
Ukraine has also faced recurring strains as Western industries battle to replenish ammunition consumed on the front lines. This summer, Ukrainian forces reportedly fired about 6,500 rounds daily, while NATO sources quoted by the New York Times indicated about 45,000 rounds daily were being produced in Russia. In a recent interview with The Economist, General Valery Zaluzhny, who led Ukrainian efforts, stated that the current priority is to hold lines, bolster resources, and strengthen air defenses to shield the energy system from attacks.
Patriotic air defense efforts
The hope is that new Patriot missile batteries will arrive soon, a commitment reiterated by the U.S. president during Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s visit to Washington. Zaluzhny expressed confidence that the enemy can be defeated, but emphasized the need for more resources. His stark request included hundreds of tanks, armored vehicles, and artillery to restore the front to its February 2023 positions, if possible, while acknowledging the reality of limited time and capacity.
Yet this winter break does not seem lasting. Both Moscow and Kyiv are weighing major operations aimed at clearing obstacles to the war in its early 2023 phase. The Kremlin maintains a discreet posture, but many analysts anticipate a renewed push. Some expect an initiative to recapture northern Ukraine from Belarus, while others project a strategy designed to create conditions that permit a larger offensive and restrict Ukrainian countermeasures.
A similar interpretation comes from Mikhailo Samus of Kyiv’s New Geopolitical Research Network. He suggests the Russians may aim to seize control of central Ukrainian regions, including the Rivne Nuclear Power Plant, while simultaneously disrupting supply routes that Western weaponry depends on. The overarching goal, he argues, would be to blunt Ukrainian counterstrikes in the east and south. Satellite surveillance has noted new roads along the Belarus-Ukraine border, hinting at strategic movements.
Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko has resisted a full-scale invasion, aware that Belarusian military capacity is tightly tied to Russia. Analysts say Lukashenko’s economy leans on Moscow, and his army functions largely as an extension of Russian forces. For the moment, experts agree that the Kremlin cannot count on broad Belarusian backing for an assault, even if Russia had the military means to cross into Ukraine from Belarus.
Ukraine, meanwhile, is positioning for counteroffensives that could unfold across several fronts. Samus outlines three potential routes: pressing in Donbas, disrupting the continuity of occupied territories in Melitopol and Berdyansk, or crossing the Dnieper in Kherson province. Ukrainians have earned a reputation for surprise moves that complicate Kremlin plans, making strategic signaling a key part of their approach.
Kyiv continues to project resolve, even as it sometimes uses strategic ambiguity. The Ukrainian defense minister affirmed that Armed Forces will maintain momentum, especially when conditions allow for firmer ground. With winter conditions expected to favor defense, officials say counterattacks and mobilization will press on to free their regions.