These are turbulent times for cinema and much more, but Hollywood is ready to celebrate. He is preparing to attend the 96th Academy Awards, which will take place this Sunday at the Dolby Theatre in Los Angeles, with a gala hosted by comedian Jimmy Kimmel for the fourth time. This year the celebration shifts up by an hour, kicking off at midnight on Monday in Spain.
If there were ever a certainty about these Oscars, it would be that thrillers aren’t the lead. Oppenheimer, the monumental portrait of the father of the atomic age, has emerged as the frontrunner for best picture with 11 nominations. It stands among a rare group of films that have swept the main guilds — producers, directors, and actors — before securing the Oscar, a feat achieved by only a few in history. [Citation: Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences]
Predicting the director statue for Christopher Nolan against Robert Downey Jr. in supporting actor or against Cillian Murphy in lead would be bold, yet not impossible. There are whispers of a surprise: Da, featuring Paul Giamatti as the professor in The Remains, might pull a late upset, and Vine Joy Randolph could also contend for supporting actress. [Citation: Industry Analysts]
Strong three-way women’s duel
Screenplay trophies lean toward winners from Cannes Anatomy of a Fall and Justine Triet’s satirical debut, with Cord Jefferson’s adaptation of Percival Everett’s novel X struggling for momentum. Yet the major categories remain wide open, save for the leading actor race where many look for a decisive choice. [Citation: Oscars Predictors]
In the Best Actress race, Emma Stone stars in Poor Creatures as Bella Baxter, a character defined by her fierce independence. Justine Triet’s film presents a fearless heroine who rejects stereotypes, led by Sandra Hüller — the year’s sole female director nominee — and a broader conversation sparked by Greta Gerwig’s absence from Barbie. Lily Gladstone is a central figure too. [Citation: Film Critics Associations]
The narrative of Native representation continues with Lily Gladstone as a leading presence. Although other Indigenous actresses have been nominated in Oscar history, Lily Gladstone’s portrayal in Martin Scorsese’s The Moon Killers stands out for its cultural specificity. If recognized, it would mark a historic first for a Native American performer at the Academy Awards, spotlighting healing and reckoning in how Indigenous peoples are portrayed on screen. [Citation: Native American Press]
Spanish hopes
For the two Spanish films in competition, predictability lingers over the ceremony, leaving little room for surprise. Pablo Berger reflects this reality from Los Angeles as the event unfolds, with Robot Dreams up against The Boy and the Heron, Miyazaki’s animational masterwork, and Spider-Man: Crossing the Multiverse, a sequel not born from Disney. [Citation: Film Journal]
In the international field, JA Bayona’s The Snow Society faces The Zone of Interest, a German-British production that challenges expectations. As with Parasite, the ceremony’s jurors have embraced Jonathan Glazer’s stark exploration of the banality of evil, earning a place among the Best Picture contenders. [Citation: Global Film Review]
The world is burning
The documentary space has eyes on a possible British triumph with 20 Days in Mariupol, which could set the stage for speeches addressing harsh realities beyond cinema. The day’s events touch on global crises from Gaza and Ukraine to humanitarian tragedies in between. A call for equal compassion across conflicts was echoed by Bafta producer James Wilson, urging that responsibility extend to all innocent lives affected. [Citation: International Film Coverage]
Demonstrations near the Dolby Theatre echo recent ceremonies, including the Independent Spirit Awards and the Grammys, as political engagement intersects with entertainment. This awards season arrives amid U.S. elections, with heightened security in Los Angeles and the Academy employing a sizable security presence. [Citation: City News]
The Academy’s celebration is both a spotlight and a reflection, reopening red carpets and reaffirming the ritual of awarding top honors in four major categories. Performances by prominent stars, including Ryan Gosling with two nominated songs for Barbie, may accompany the show, while Native American artists from the Osage community bring a powerful historical moment to the stage. [Citation: Entertainment Wire]
As audiences respond to a year of strong box office with titles like Barbenheimer, which helped push global grosses past two and a half billion dollars, the ceremony seeks to recapture viewer engagement through television. Yet they’ve also faced a lengthy writers’ and actors’ strike that paused Hollywood for months. [Citation: Box Office Analytics]
Many elements remain uncertain. The industry faces risks and questions about long-term health as AI and a changing market reshape production. Even with a flourishing slate, the mood is cautious rather than celebratory. The best approach, many say, is to start the week facing tomorrow with clarity and resolve. [Citation: Industry Outlook]