Before a shopper known as Julia, not her real name, took a vacation, the private label olive oil at the supermarket where she works cost five euros. A partner remarked that prices have climbed recently, noting that it now nears seven euros. On shelves in Barcelona Tuesday, August 29, bottles were selling for almost ten euros nearby. National Institute of Statistics figures show olive oil was already nearly 40 percent more expensive in July than a year earlier, and August is likely to carry a further rise since origin prices have climbed from 7.7 euros per kilo for extra virgin the previous month, according to the Spanish Federation of Industrial Olive Oil Producers data. Amid this surge, consumer demand has weakened rather than strengthened.
Why was the cheapest oil around seven euros per liter?
The monthly analysis from the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food indicates that Spanish households bought roughly 12 percent less olive oil in April compared with the same month the prior year. Cooperative and distribution sector sources cited by El Periódico de Catalunya, part of the Prensa Ibérica group, confirm the trend persisted in the following months.
According to Rafael Sanchez de Puerta, president of Cooperativas Agroalimentarias de España, the picture is clear: customers are reducing the quantity they buy rather than switching to other oils such as sunflower. This reflects a dangerous squeeze in the olive oil sector. The latest season ended with the worst harvest in years, and the outlook for the current year appears even more challenging. Yet the expert emphasizes there is no imminent famine. Availability remains, but prices could be regulated rather than left to market forces to prevent a possible shortage.
Inflation effect
In Barcelona, six different chains report similar trends. Even as prices rise, establishments across multiple chains show no widespread theft attempts to offset costs. This has prompted public discussions about what action makes sense to curb future increases. Seagull Clos, president of the Girona Young Farmers Agricultural Association, notes a shift toward more visible agricultural representation. He explains that many families simply cannot gamble on the stock market or invest in large quantities of oil with tight budgets. Market concentration and limited supply contribute to the problem, and the amount available for distribution is shrinking.
Olive groves, according to Christopher Cano, president of the Small Farmers and Farmers Union, face a double challenge: a scant crop to sell and consumers confronted with higher prices. He forecasts that the profile of typical buyers will shift toward those who can afford oil as prices continue to rise.
Short-term forecasts from the consulted voices suggest prices may soon peak. But supermarket workers warn that returning to previous levels will be difficult. Factors such as climate change and drought further complicate the supply outlook, making a reversal unlikely in the near term.