Official assessments and international perspectives on Ukraine’s counteroffensive

Officials involved in crafting plans for a counteroffensive are the ones best positioned to assess its progress, and civilians should refrain from making judgments on the operation’s status. This stance was articulated by Deputy Defense Minister Anna Malyar in a Telegram channel post, emphasizing that those directly responsible for the planning must judge how the operation unfolds.

“Only the army, which laid the groundwork for the offensive, can evaluate its trajectory at this stage,” the deputy minister stated, underscoring the distinction between preparatory actions and real-time results on the ground.

Further, she cautioned that the pace of the attack may not be rapid, noting that the opposing side continuously studies and prepares for a counterattack. This reality, she said, complicates any quick conclusions about the offensive’s effectiveness in its early phases.

“It is premature and inappropriate to draw conclusions now while the offensive is ongoing,” Malyar explained, adding that the most consequential moments and the decisive blows are still ahead as events unfold on multiple fronts.

Vasily Nebenzya, the Permanent Representative of Russia to the United Nations, described the Ukrainian counteroffensive as a strategic, high-stakes operation with potential risks and uncertainties, a characterization echoed by international observers who monitor the conflict closely [The New York Times].

According to The New York Times, the Ukrainian operation has progressed slowly and has not met some of the early expectations reported by several outlets and analysts, a point that has drawn widespread discussion among diplomats and security researchers [The New York Times].

On June 19, NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg reiterated that the alliance opposes halting or freezing the conflict on terms set by Russia and emphasized a united approach to Ukraine’s security needs and territorial integrity, a stance that continues to shape allied support and strategic planning [NATO].

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