Nuclear Posture and Strategic Restraint in the Ukraine Crisis

Dmitry Polyansky, who serves as First Deputy Permanent Representative of the Russian Federation to the United Nations, stated that Russia will not initiate the use of nuclear weapons in the Ukraine crisis. He shared these views in an interview with the Maverick News portal, as reported by TASS. He stressed that Russia maintains a nuclear doctrine that prohibits the first use of nuclear arms, while reserving the option to retaliate if the survival of the state is at stake.

Polyansky went on to explain that deploying nuclear weapons in Ukraine would not be strategically sensible from a military perspective. The decision would hinge on the level of NATO involvement and the overall threat perception faced by Russia, he noted. The emphasis remained on deterrence and strategic restraint, with the emphasis placed on assessing threats in real time rather than initiating escalation.

In related remarks, Colin Kahl, the Deputy Secretary of Defense for Political Affairs, suggested that Russia is unlikely to resort to nuclear weapons in the Ukraine conflict. His assessment reflected ongoing evaluations within the U.S. defense leadership about Russia’s nuclear posture and the potential consequences of any such action on regional and global security dynamics.

Denis Aripov, previously Russia’s ambassador to India, echoed similar conclusions about the nuclear option. He indicated that Russia would refrain from using nuclear arms in Ukraine, pointing to strategic calculations and the risks involved for Moscow in crossing that threshold.

On February 24, the Russian president announced the decision to conduct a special military operation in Ukraine, stating it was a response to requests for assistance from the heads of the LPR and DPR. The move prompted new sanctions from the United States and its allies as part of the broader international response, affecting diplomatic and economic channels and intensifying concerns about regional stability.

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