Recent research evaluated how a nuclear conflict involving major powers could ripple through global food systems, potentially triggering widespread hunger. The study, published in a leading scientific journal, examined how soot from fires sparked by nuclear detonations could alter atmospheric conditions and, in turn, agricultural output around the world.
Climatologists from Rutgers University in the United States modeled several scenarios. Lead researcher Lili Xia and her team considered five regional wars and one large interstate confrontation between Russia and the United States. The calculations were scaled to reflect each nation’s estimated nuclear arsenal, then fed into climate simulations to forecast agricultural outcomes.
Impact on crops
The team integrated their climate projections with crop models to estimate effects on key staples such as corn, rice, wheat, and soybeans, as well as on grazing lands and global fisheries. The results highlighted how different conflict scales could reshape food supply chains and trade dependencies across continents.
In the most limited conflict scenario, such as a constrained clash between India and Pakistan, global average calorie production could fall by about 7 percent in the five years following the hostilities. The analysis underscores that even smaller-scale nuclear exchanges could disrupt food availability for years.
Under the most severe scenario, global calorie production might plummet by as much as 90 percent within three to four years, illustrating a potential collapse of food security for large portions of the planet.
There is an anticipated decline in crop yields, especially in mid- and high-latitude regions. Major exporters of food could see sharp reductions, which would threaten import-reliant economies in regions such as Africa and the Middle East, while also impacting the United States and Russia as importers depending on global supply dynamics.
World famine
The study suggests that up to 75 percent of global populations could face food shortages under the most extreme scenarios. It also considers whether agricultural production for livestock could, in theory, be redirected to human consumption in the early stages of a crisis, though this remains a speculative option.
Researchers indicate that broader consequences, including environmental stressors, would compound food insecurity. Ozone depletion and ultraviolet radiation increases could further affect crop health and yields, complicating efforts to stabilize the food system during and after a conflict. The team emphasizes the need for ongoing analysis of these pathways to better predict and mitigate risk to food supplies.
Looking ahead, the researchers plan additional work to refine their models and explore a wider range of interactions within the food chain. A deeper understanding of these effects will aid policymakers and farmers in preparing for potential shocks and in strengthening resilience of critical food supply networks.