Experts believe it is highly unlikely that a new coronavirus subspecies would emerge with a marked change in pathogenicity while remaining equally or more contagious. A physician at INVITRO-Siberia LLC explained to reporters that current evidence does not support the idea of a sudden jump in how harmful the virus is, even as it becomes easier to spread.
According to the medical professional, all recognized variants to date trace back to the Omicron lineage. Unlike earlier waves, Omicron and its sub-variants spread rapidly, and each successive sub-variant tends to be more transmissible than the one before it. This pattern reflects the virus’s ongoing evolution toward higher infectiousness rather than greater harm to the host.
“Viruses compete and adapt. A subspecies with one particular advantage can outcompete others, which is why a rise in contagiousness is observed across variants. The virus mutates to enter the human body more efficiently and to persist, but pathogenicity is not an essential driver for its survival. While there is a nonzero chance of encountering a very infectious strain that also causes more severe disease, it remains unlikely,” the physician noted.
In contrast, influenza can exhibit new mutations that increase susceptibility in humans, partly due to its animal reservoirs. The flu’s evolving nature is driven by a different set of dynamics, and its reservoirs contribute to a different pattern of mutation compared to coronaviruses.
Earlier reports indicated the emergence of a new COVID-19 strain known as Arcturus, with several cases identified and public health authorities monitoring a rise in incidence of this sub-variant. The situation underscores the importance of continuous surveillance and data analysis to understand how new mutations affect spread and disease impact over time.
Public health officials emphasize that vaccination, testing, and non-pharmaceutical interventions remain critical tools. These measures help reduce transmission while scientists study how variants behave and what that means for treatment and prevention strategies. In the current landscape, the focus is on understanding how changes in infectiousness influence spread patterns and the overall burden on healthcare systems, rather than anticipating dramatic leaps in pathogenicity.
As the virus continues to evolve, experts agree that patience and vigilance are essential. Ongoing research and transparent reporting will guide recommendations for vaccines, boosters, and public health responses. The goal remains to limit spread, protect vulnerable populations, and maintain readiness for any new developments in the virus’s evolutionary trajectory.