The Atlantic Alliance is watching closely. There is no proof that China has supplied lethal aid to Russia, but NATO’s message is clear: providing such military support would be a historic mistake with serious consequences. That warning was reiterated this week by NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg after a two-day gathering of allied foreign ministers in Brussels, where members discussed Russia’s aggression in Ukraine and the evolving ties between Beijing and Moscow. The ministers from South Korea, New Zealand, Australia, and Japan joined the dialogue to assess how China’s posture could influence the security landscape in the Indo-Pacific and beyond.
Stoltenberg remarked that Beijing’s refusal to condemn Russia’s actions mirrors Moscow’s propaganda and could bolster Russia’s economy in ways that undermine the international system. He noted that Beijing and Moscow are expanding their joint military activities in the Indo-Pacific region, and he emphasized that any lethal aid from China would be treated as a grave misstep with profound consequences. He described the current period as one where the rule-based order has faced setbacks, urging careful monitoring of any Chinese support to Russia.
When pressed about the possible consequences, Stoltenberg indicated that several allies had signaled serious responses if such aid were confirmed. He avoided specifics but underscored that China knows there would be real repercussions. He added that there has not yet been confirmation of lethal shipments, but the alliance is watching developments very closely. The warning coincided with a European diplomatic visit to Beijing, where French President Emmanuel Macron and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen held discussions with President Xi Jinping. The head of European diplomacy, Josep Borrell, was also set to travel to China in the coming days.
He did not condemn the war
Concerns within allied circles about Beijing’s lack of a formal condemnation of Russia’s invasion are longstanding. Stoltenberg recalled China and Russia’s February 24, 2022 agreement, noting that China has not publicly denounced the invasion and that the two powers appear to be moving closer together. He described a partnership marked by a shared interest in expanding influence with “no borders” in sight. A clear example, he observed, is China’s support for Russia’s economy, which has drawn sanctions aimed at curbing Moscow’s war machine in Ukraine.
Until recently, China had not featured prominently in NATO’s strategic discussions. The Madrid summit marked a turning point, with leaders acknowledging China’s growing military and strategic footprint. They stated that China should be understood as a country that challenges shared interests and values, even if it is not labeled an outright enemy. The alliance also highlighted concerns about China’s long-range capabilities, including nuclear missiles, and the implications for regional and global security.
Stoltenberg pointed to China’s tightening grip on internal affairs, including the suppression of dissent in Hong Kong and its approach to ethnic and religious minorities. He warned that China’s assertive actions in the South China Sea pose regional challenges and could influence trade dynamics, while also noting tensions around Taiwan and the potential for cyber operations or attempts to control critical infrastructure. He invited Indo-Pacific partners to participate in discussions at upcoming forums, underscoring the broader concern about Beijing’s growing reach.
Target more than 2%
The allied ministers also addressed broader regional security questions, including the Middle East and North Africa, as well as the situation in China, arms shipments to Ukraine, and the need for sustained defense spending. The Wales summit emerged as a reference point for the alliance’s pledge to invest at least 2% of gross domestic product in defense, while stressing that the target should be viewed as a floor rather than a ceiling. The emphasis was on ensuring the ability to replenish stocks and maintain readiness in the face of ongoing threats. Stoltenberg stressed that stronger defense investments are essential to deterrence and preparedness.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken reinforced this stance at a recent briefing, noting that prudent stock replenishment is a practical necessity for allied forces to uphold security commitments. The collective message remains that long-term deterrence depends on credible deterrence, robust readiness, and steady investment.