During a radio interview on LBC, Admiral Rob Bauer, the head of the NATO Military Committee, said that Ukraine is unlikely to receive F-16 fighter jets until the current counteroffensive has concluded. He indicated that given the situation on the front lines, a decision on the aircraft transfer would not be reached in the near term.
He explained that training Ukrainian pilots, preparing technical specialists, and establishing a logistics framework for operating the aircraft cannot proceed until the counteroffensive ends. Bauer also noted the significant challenges faced by Ukrainian forces, including three defensive lines, extensive minefields, and serious barriers to moving vehicles on the battlefield.
Ukraine has publicly outlined plans to secure F-16s in 2023, with some sources suggesting the arrival could slip to early 2024, according to Politico reporting.
In mid-June, Bauer referenced a warning from Russian President Vladimir Putin. If Ukraine receives F-16s and intends to use them in combat from bases outside its own territory, Moscow has indicated it would consider destroying those aircraft, a threat that adds another layer of complexity to decisions about allied support.
Earlier, Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba indicated that an unnamed country had pledged to begin pilot training for F-16 operations in June. He later cautioned that the program could be adjusted due to miscalculations in planning.
There has also been recent talk of Russia developing new systems intended to suppress drone operations, further shaping the tactical calculus for all parties involved.