The Moscow secondary housing market is anticipated to show little movement at the start of 2024, with market activity closely tied to how lending costs evolve. A shift of just 1% in the average mortgage rate can lead to a roughly 5% drop in the number of buyers engaging in transactions, underscoring how sensitive buyers are to borrowing expenses. These dynamics drive a significant portion of market activity, since mortgage financing supports about seven out of ten housing deals. When interest rates rise, borrowing becomes more costly and less accessible for many would‑be buyers, which cools overall demand and slows turnover in the market.
There is concern that further rate increases by the Central Bank could prompt some potential buyers to pause plans to purchase new apartments, waiting for a more favorable financial environment. This hesitation could slow sales momentum and influence near‑term price movements. Earlier projections suggested that macroeconomic conditions would play a major role in shaping Moscow’s real estate landscape in 2024. The market’s path would depend not only on credit availability but also on policy choices and the broader economic outlook for the capital.
A second important factor is the mortgage environment itself, including the level of the central bank’s key rate and government programs designed to support buyers. These elements are expected to influence affordability and demand across the city, affecting purchasing power and market sentiment among buyers. Analysts also forecast a possible easing of prices for secondary housing in Moscow in the first quarter of 2024, a trend driven by higher borrowing costs and cautious buyer behavior. If these patterns persist, they would contribute to a buyer‑friendly market, with more room for negotiation shifting toward purchasers in certain segments.
As the year unfolds, industry observers stress that credit conditions, policy signals, and the broader economy will continue to set the tone for Moscow’s secondary housing market. Prospective buyers may respond to rate movements, tax incentives, and any new housing support initiatives that affect affordability. In this environment, prudent buyers often weigh the total cost of ownership, including down payments, monthly payments, and potential changes in future rates, before deciding when to act. (Citation: Moscow Real Estate Analytics, 2024; current market monitors)