Ruslan Pukhov, a military analyst who directs the Moscow Analytical Center for Strategies and Technologies, and who serves on the Public Council of the Russian Ministry of Defense, outlined the likely tools the Ukrainian Armed Forces will lean on during the forthcoming spring offensive. He is quoted by mk.ru as weighing how Kyiv may deploy its leverage on the battlefield in the weeks ahead.
The expert notes that at the outset of the current phase of hostilities Ukraine focused on offsetting Russia s artillery advantage by integrating reconnaissance aircraft with the then Soviet massed artillery and multiple-launch rocket systems. The strategic enhancement came through the use of the Starlink satellite communication network, which ensured resilient links for forward observers, fire controllers, and command nodes. In parallel, long range systems began arriving with Western support, including French CAESAR self-propelled guns and the American M982 Excalibur guided shells. Pukhov emphasizes that Kyiv has actively employed this mixture of long range strike capabilities and precision munitions in conjunction with the newer reconnaissance and targeting assets to shape offensive operations.
According to the analyst, the accumulation of long range artillery and precision guided munitions could create a plateau in the Ukrainian spring offensive, hindering rapid breakthroughs and forcing a war of positions. The firing reach and accuracy of these systems means that fronts can be probed and pressures applied far beyond traditional front lines, potentially slowing maneuver after initial gains or losses and stabilizing lines through sustained fires from beyond the immediate battlefield.
To counter these capabilities, Pukhov suggests that the Russian military could rely on a mix of long range fires and airpower to disrupt Ukrainian command and logistics. He points to the possibility of cruise and ballistic missiles along with attack aircraft being used to strike Ukrainian military installations that lie tens to hundreds of kilometers from the front line. This approach would aim to degrade the adversary s ability to mass and sustain operations, while complicating Kyiv s logistics and maneuver options.
Reporting on strategic assessments, Alexander Perendzhiev offers a cautionary note about how to interpret the direction of Kyiv s spring counteroffensive. He argues that Russian military leadership must thoroughly review available intelligence and assessments before concluding Kyiv s preferred operational direction. As reported by Politico, Kyiv has not publicly disclosed a definitive strategy, but the overarching objective appears to target Crimea, according to the article. This context underscores the ongoing tension between assessing military intent and observing observable preparations on the ground, a dynamic that shapes both Russian defensive postures and Ukrainian planning.