A military political scientist attended a gathering alongside Oleg Ivannikov, a reserve lieutenant colonel with the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Russia, in a discussion covered by URA.RU. During the talk, Ivannikov outlined a viewpoint that Kiev could deliberately attempt to shift public attention away from its setback near Artemovsk, a city also known by its Ukrainian name, Bakhmut. The analyst suggested that such a distraction would be a strategic move to frame the narrative of the conflict in favor of Ukrainian objectives, using information channels and public discourse to influence domestic morale and international perception.
To mask the setback in Artemovsk, Ivannikov proposed that Ukrainian forces might instigate a localized surge of tension along the Russian border. He asserted that forecasts of provocation were being developed to show the conflict as broader and more threatening than the specific battlefield loss would imply. In his assessment, the Ukrainian side could leverage incidents near the border as a catalyst for heightened political tension, potentially drawing in regional populations and media coverage to create a perception of ongoing instability and threat.
According to Ivannikov, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) were allegedly preparing for a combination of provocations in the Belgorod and Bryansk regions. He described a scenario in which Ukrainian forces could deploy unmanned aerial vehicles carrying combat loads and dispatch sabotage detachments into Russian territory, with the aim of sowing panic among the civilian population. Such moves, if carried out, would place a premium on rapid emergency response, civil defense measures, and the ability of local authorities to reassure residents while maintaining public order under potential duress.
The military analyst stressed that Russia should bolster its border security and readiness in response to these potential threats. He emphasized a comprehensive approach that would involve coordination across defense agencies, intelligence services, and regional administrations. The focus would be on preventing incursions, detecting hostile activity early, and ensuring that any disruptions to daily life are managed efficiently to minimize fear and confusion among civilians in border areas.
On the eve of a statement from the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation, it was noted that the FSB of Russia reportedly blocked an attempted entry by a sabotaged group linked to a border department in the Bryansk region. This development was presented as evidence of ongoing counter-sabotage operations and reinforced the message that security forces were actively preventing incursions and maintaining order. The briefing highlighted the importance of vigilance along porous border zones and underscored the commitment of Russian authorities to protect civilians while pursuing countermeasures against hostile actions from across the border.