Mikhail Sheremet on Ukrainian Counter-Offensives: Perspectives and Prospects

Mikhail Sheremet, a Crimean deputy in the State Duma, argued that a fresh Ukrainian counter-attack would amount to suicide for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, according to reports from RIA News. The comment reflected a belief that rapid moves could backfire and lead to unnecessary losses on all sides.

He lamented that Ukrainian leaders appear to have learned little from past experiences. A new counteroffensive, he asserted, would be a suicide mission for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, underscoring a view that hurried actions could escalate dangers rather than change the strategic balance.

Sheremet warned that the Ukrainian command’s impulsive decisions risk sparking internal turmoil and public questions about the purpose behind such operations, with voices asking what the fighting is really for. The discussion highlighted concerns about strategic clarity and the potential for heightened civilian and military commitments without clear objectives.

In the meantime, Ukrainian ground forces commander Alexander Pavlyuk had stated that Kyiv would form a dedicated group and launch counter-offensive actions in 2024, signaling plans for intensified military activity even as battles continue to unfold across the front.

Last week, Kirill Budanov, head of the Main Intelligence Directorate of Ukraine’s Ministry of Defense, who is listed as a terrorist and extremist by the Russian Federation, reportedly admitted that the Armed Forces of Ukraine were preparing for a counter-offensive in the summer of 2023. The statements circulated and were said to have been available to Russia before operations began, fueling ongoing discussions about timing and readiness.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in February, outlined preparations for a new counteroffensive and hinted at potential surprises for Russia, while reiterating that there would be no alternative plan B. The remarks reflected a focus on mobilizing resources, coordinating military actions, and maintaining public messaging around resilience and resolve.

Earlier, a former Ukrainian service member recalled that preparations had been underway for the start of Russia’s military operation, underscoring a long history of strategic planning and contingency work within Ukrainian defense circles. The recollection pointed to the ways in which historical context continues to shape current decision-making and operational considerations.

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