Migration mortality trends: a decade of data on migrant deaths and risk factors

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Over the past decade, more than 63,200 migrants have lost their lives on dangerous migration routes, with one third coming from countries torn by conflict, according to the International Organization for Migration. In its latest report, the IOM notes that at least 3,471 Afghans died while fleeing Afghanistan after the Taliban seized power in 2021, and 2,202 Burmese migrants were killed amid persecution of the Rohingya community.

The organization also warns that the death toll in 2023 rose by about 20 percent compared with the previous year, making 2023 the deadliest year since 2014 with 8,541 deaths, up from 7,141 in 2022. The majority of migrants in 2023 originated from Afghanistan, Ethiopia, Myanmar, Syria, and Senegal.

Just under half of the total deaths, around 3,100 migrants, occurred at sea in the Mediterranean. Across the ten-year span, more than 36,000 people have drowned during maritime crossings. The report also shows that Mediterranean fatalities have remained high, with 2015 and 2016 marking the worst years at 4,055 and 5,136 deaths respectively, though there was a decline between 2018 and 2020.

Drowning remains the leading cause of death for migrants, with 4,470 deaths in 2023, including 2,882 people who went missing and are presumed to have died in the maritime routes. While most fatalities occurred in the Mediterranean, many migrants also perished on the U.S.-Mexico border crossing and in the Gulf of Aden crossings.

The IOM links the surge in sea deaths in the past year to more departures from the Tunisian coast, which accounted for 729 deaths—far higher than the 462 deaths recorded in 2022. In earlier years, the main departure point was Libya.

In Africa, the organization describes 2023 as one of the toughest years, with 1,866 reported deaths compared with 1,031 in 2022, a figure only surpassed in 2019 when 1,911 people died. Migrants in Africa lost their lives on routes toward the Canary Islands and across the Sahara. The IOM cautions that the real numbers could be much higher because desert tracking is difficult and some shipwrecks go unrecorded in the Atlantic.

Additionally, the report notes a shift in 2023, with more people leaving from countries like Senegal and Mauritania, whereas in previous years the majority came from the Moroccan coast. This shifting pattern highlights the changing dynamics of migration flows and the ongoing risks faced by people seeking safety and a better life.

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