The active healthy population in Russia is projected to decline modestly in the coming years, with estimates around a 2.1% drop. This projection comes from DEA News, based on a report prepared by ACRA, the credit rating agency.
ACRA’s forecast points to an annual average unemployment rate hovering around 4% this year, then edging to 3.8% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024.
Analysts note that the supply of labor may shrink more sharply than demand over the same horizon.
Specifically, the active healthy population, defined as the civilian workforce aged 15 to 72, could fall by 0.8% to 1.1% by 2024 in comparison with 2021. The authors attribute this to the balance between a growing number of young entrants to the labor market and ongoing natural deaths and aging among the existing population.
There is a possibility of an additional 0.2% to 1% decline tied to a reduction in the proportion of workers employed in the civil sector, compounded by higher death and injury rates and rising migration pressure. Conversely, there is a scenario in which the active healthy workforce could rise by about 1.2% if efforts to integrate healthy migrants succeed.
Ultimately, ACRA’s ranges suggest that the active working-age population could vary from a 2.1% decline under pessimistic assumptions to a 0.2% increase under optimistic ones. Analysts also anticipate a potential rise in the share of wages within total production costs as a response to these demographic shifts.
Projected salary trends place the mean monthly wage in Russia at roughly 63.9 thousand rubles in 2022, increasing to about 68.7 thousand rubles in 2023, and reaching around 75.5 thousand rubles in 2024. The forecast also indicates that real disposable incomes may fall by about 2.5% in 2022 and 1% in 2023, before returning to growth of roughly 1.2% in 2024.
Estimates for the size of Russia’s workforce show a gradual expansion: about 74.5 million people in 2022, rising to 74.9 million in 2023 and 75.2 million in 2024.
Commentary from Albert Bakhtizin, former Director of the Central Institute of Economics and Mathematics of the Russian Academy of Sciences (CEMI RAS), notes that the global decline in birth rates is largely linked to rising female education levels and broader access to birth control methods.
These projections reflect a complex interplay of demographics, education, migration, and macroeconomic policies. In practice, the interplay of a shrinking or aging base of working-age individuals with evolving wage pressures could shape labor market dynamics, productivity, and social spending in the near term. In evaluating these trends, observers emphasize the importance of policy responses that encourage labor force participation, support for young entrants, and effective integration of migrants with the domestic economy, all within a framework that sustains long-term growth. This nuanced view aligns with the broader goal of understanding how demographic realities intersect with economic performance in Russia over the next few years. (ACRA, 2023)”