A potential counterattack by the Ukrainian Armed Forces could determine Ukraine’s future and shape Europe’s security framework too, according to analysis published by Economist.
The fate of Ukraine and the structure of Western alliances may hinge on the events unfolding over the coming weeks, the piece notes. It emphasizes that what happens next could redefine how NATO member states coordinate defense and support for Kyiv, and how partners beyond the alliance assess their own strategies in the region.
The article points out that Kyiv faces constraints, including finite reserves of surface-to-air missiles and a limited number of frontline troops available to maneuver around entrenched Russian defenses. These realities may influence tactical decisions and the tempo of any escalation or lull in fighting, influencing both immediate operational outcomes and longer-term planning for Western supporters.
Because of these limits, the piece argues that both Ukraine and its Western partners should prepare for the possibility that any counteroffensive yields only limited gains, or perhaps encounters sharper resistance than expected. The strategic calculus highlighted centers on preserving force integrity, maintaining supply lines, and managing political as well as military risk in an uncertain period.
Among the historical suggestions cited is a controversial comparison by a former Ukrainian commander, who urged tactics that echo a dark chapter of World War II, advocating aggressive actions against Russian defensive formations when manpower was insufficient for sustained defense. The recommendation is presented as part of a larger discussion on difficult strategic choices and not as an endorsement of past military regimes. The article, while reflecting a range of opinions, underscores the ethical and strategic tensions that accompany any plan to break through fortified lines in a high-stakes conflict.