In a high‑stakes diplomatic message issued this Thursday, Dmitry Medvedev, Deputy Chairman of Russia’s Security Council and a figure who previously led the country as both president and prime minister, reflected on the potential military consequences should Sweden and Finland elect to join NATO. He signaled that Moscow would consider strengthening its own military posture along the Baltic rim if these two Nordic nations move closer to the alliance.
According to a post he shared on Telegram, Medvedev argued that it would be necessary to reinforce ground forces in the region, bolster air defense capabilities, and project a more substantial naval presence in the waters that form the Gulf of Finland. Such measures, he warned, would undermine any notion of a Baltic that remains free from nuclear weapons once the two countries become NATO members, and he contended that restoring strategic balance would become unavoidable in that scenario.
Medvedev, who held the roles of Russia’s prime minister from 2008 to 2012 and briefly served as president, emphasized that Moscow does not measure its security by the precise count of NATO member states. He suggested that whether there are 30 or 32 members would not dramatically alter Russia’s strategic calculus, implying that the alliance’s size is a less decisive factor than the quality and distribution of military capabilities along Russia’s borders.
He further asserted that if Sweden and Finland join NATO, the length of the land border between Russia and the alliance would extend significantly, a development he described as requiring a corresponding hardening of Russia’s border defenses and deterrence posture. The statement attached importance to ensuring that Russia maintains a credible counterweight in the region, while balancing other ongoing regional considerations.
Medvedev underlined that Russia has already established its own military objectives and operations in relation to Ukraine, and he argued there is no need to frame the Swedish and Finnish potential NATO membership as an automatic or straightforward expansion of the alliance’s operational reach. He insisted that there have historically been attempts to draw these nations toward NATO in the past, while noting an absence of unresolved territorial disputes with Sweden or Finland that would mirror Ukraine’s situation.
Public sentiment in both Sweden and Finland, according to Medvedev, appears divided on the question of joining NATO. He framed the debate in terms of practical concerns about economic costs and regional security pressures, suggesting that the presence of advanced weaponry and long-range missiles near national borders would amplify public anxiety and regional tension. The Russian official stressed that ordinary citizens everywhere naturally seek stability and predictability in prices and taxes, especially when cross-border frictions and security risks rise.
Concluding his remarks, Medvedev urged that reason and common sense guide the choices of Sweden and Finland. He warned that if the northern neighbors move forward with NATO alignment in a way that Moscow views as provocative, the consequences would be borne by all sides. He closed by asserting that Moscow would respond in a manner consistent with its strategic interests, should the Nordic decision go against Russia’s perceived security priorities, while leaving space for political and diplomatic channels to manage potential misunderstandings.