A week into his presidency, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva faces the dual task of addressing the lingering shadows of Bolsonaro’s era and steering a nation marked by power imbalances. The third Lula administration opened in Brasília under a bright sun, a symbol that illuminated the diverse forces at play. Lula embraces a spectrum of identities—child, native, Black, woman, worker, and disability—each representing a group that felt marginalized during the prior far-right government. An observer noted that the early optimism could be fleeting, with a columnist suggesting the wish to believe in something possibly unattainable. The image at the inauguration captured that tension—a wave of hopeful energy meeting the hard calculus of politics.
Yet, optimism does not erase nuance. After the initial euphoria, analysts highlighted the paradox of governance in a federal system where Lula leads a coalition with both programmatic resolve and emotional appeal. The left-leaning configuration in Brazil complicates the path forward: thirteen of the twenty-seven states are governed by the right, including the economically dynamic capitals of São Paulo, Rio de Janeiro, and Minas Gerais. Some of these governors supported Jair Bolsonaro until recently. The Conservative majority in both chambers of Congress forces the administration into continuous, measured negotiations with the political center.
first sparks
Lula benefited from crucial support that helped him overcome the former Army captain in the second round, with Simone Tebet of the moderate Brazilian Democratic Movement (MDB) delivering a strong performance in the first round. The support was rewarded with the post of Planning and Budget minister. As Tebet assumed office, questions arose about the coordination with Fernando Haddad, the economy minister, while genuine opposition persisted for the moment.
In social terms, the state of Brazil remains deeply strained. About 281,000 Brazilians live on the streets, a figure up from Bolsonaro’s presidency, and debt levels rose by roughly six million people between 2021 and 2022. Nearly half of those under 14 are classified as poor, totaling around 20.3 million individuals. The government has pushed Congress to loosen fiscal constraints to address the immediate consequences of four years of policy. Analysts see it as necessary to build broad consensus across a heterogeneous cabinet to manage these burdens. One of Lula’s toughest tests will be aligning the far-right’s commitments to reverse environmental policies with the administration’s broader development goals, including the policy of zero deforestation.
The role of Marina Silva
A veteran of Brazil’s environmental movement, Marina Silva served as Lula’s environment minister during the first term. She left the Labor Party in 2008 but rejoined the orbit when Bolsonaro’s reelection threats intensified, taking charge of Environment and Climate Change last Wednesday. Silva argues that Brazil must meet its Paris Agreement targets, aiming to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 37% by 2025. The far right’s environmental record damaged Brazil’s international standing, a setback Lula intends to reverse swiftly.
Silva frames the minister’s job as a facilitator rather than an obstacle to Brazil’s economic and social development, balancing growth with protection of natural resources. The Amazon, vast and vital, remains a central pressure point in policy debates. Some commentators note there will be tensions with other ministries, particularly Agriculture, where industry interests carry weight. Still, Lula is expected to retain the final say in critical decisions.
military front
Bolsonaro’s era saw the armed forces acting in a highly visible political role, creating friction when the PT returned to government. Some former commanders expressed discomfort with the shift back to civilian leadership, while figures like Admiral Almir Garnier Santos pledged loyalty to Lula as the new administration took charge. The armed forces are being urged to recalibrate their role after a long period of direct involvement in political discourse.
The military faces a demanding review of past operations, including a long-standing policy of keeping certain actions secret. Lula has promised greater transparency, focusing on controversial episodes during the pandemic era under the health ministry. Analysts warn that unveiling the truth could test the loyalty of some in uniform and challenge the prestige of the institutions themselves. The debate underscores the broader question of how accountability intersects with national unity and institutional legitimacy.