Comparing these two assets can be risky. Bitcoin remains one of the most volatile financial assets, while logistics real estate is a sector that typically sees smaller swings in value. Still, the past year has been notable for both, and not in a positive way.
The logistics industry experienced a surge of investment from 2020 onward, driven by a global epidemic that disrupted physical trade and accelerated the shift to electronic commerce. The rise of online shopping pushed retailers and logistics operators to demand larger, more capable ships and warehouse networks to support faster delivery times.
Positive data about these players followed the entry of new funds into what had long been considered the less glamorous side of real estate. Skilled managers around the world began viewing ships as a stable asset class, with investors seeking lower returns as risk declined. The required return eased from prior years, with 3% to 3.5% cited as a modest hurdle for assets as steady as rental properties or prime city-center offices.
In a recent interview, Juan Antonio Gutiérrez, CEO of Mazabi Wealth Management, highlighted a seldom-noted aspect of logistics property: “Buying a property in a prime Madrid location can be expensive, but it will likely have a tenant. Buy a ship in a remote area, and the question is what you do if demand collapses.”
stock market falls
A supply crunch and higher interest rates have constrained growth and exposed some companies to penalties in equity markets. While Bitcoin remains well below its all-time high, logistics-focused real estate firms have also corrected: Belgian developer VGP fell over 65% and UK-based Segro dropped close to 45% in the stock market.
Supply risks and rising construction costs disrupted plans for several players. As reported by El Periódico de España, large funds like Patrizia were forced to raise purchase prices by more than 9% to secure deals.
Meanwhile, ongoing material cost increases and monetary policy shifts have changed financing dynamics. The Federal Reserve’s rate moves, followed by adjustments from the European Central Bank, impacted sovereign bond prices. Spanish debt yields climbed from around 0.5% to about 3%.
With 3% bonds, the real estate sector faced a tougher climate, as investors sought higher returns than before to justify risk. Financing costs rose, and for top publicly listed groups, the cost of debt bonds now sits in a 4%–5% range, squeezing profitability requirements.
Amazon and Merlin Paron
The downturn in US tech stocks also casts a shadow over the Spanish market for logistics. Giants such as Tesla, Meta, and Amazon have faced pressure in equity markets, and their actions reverberate here. Earlier this year, Amazon paused several planned warehouse openings, notably in secondary cities, reflecting a broader cautious stance among large occupiers.
Ibex-35 listed real estate company Merlin Properties, an early mover in logistics, paused some new developments after a period of rapid acquisitions and land investments at favorable prices. The company previously seized opportunities in logistics land and built profitable assets, but recent market excesses have slowed its pace on certain plots.
a guaranteed future
Despite the negative headlines from mid-year, logistics remains a favored asset class. David Martínez, head of a logistics consulting firm, explained in an interview: the shift from offline to online commerce continues, with more physical stores closing. Current estimates suggest online purchases account for about 15% of total volume, with a target of 25% in the coming years.
Real estate activity as a whole is cooling. Sellers froze bids as interest rates moved, and the price buyers were willing to pay adjusted accordingly. In the months ahead, that gap is expected to narrow as economic uncertainty clarifies. Investors will watch to see whether large mutual funds keep prioritizing logistics assets, especially in resilient supply chains.