Brazilian senator Eduardo Bolsonaro, a prominent figure on the far right, recently shared a map of South America on Twitter. Colombia is marked with a hammer and sickle symbol following Gustavo Petro’s electoral victory. Common sense suggests Colombia is unlikely to join the regional progressive wave that includes Argentina, Bolivia, Chile, and, in a more nominal sense, Peru under Pedro Castillo, beyond which the situation in Mexico and Honduras remains unsettled. Polls indicate Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva could prevail over Jair Bolsonaro in Brazil, potentially pushing the region toward a leftward trajectory. Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua were positioned on the other side of the ideological spectrum, while Ecuador, Uruguay, and Paraguay, along with Costa Rica, El Salvador, and Guatemala, hovered in the middle of this dynamic. Yet, maps can be deceiving.
Lately, the Americas summit in Los Angeles yielded a guarded outcome for host Joe Biden, who found himself compelled to treat Bolsonaro with a degree of deference to bridge the gap left by Andrés Manuel López Obrador’s asylum stance toward Cuba, and the absence of Nicaragua and Venezuela at the gathering. In tones reminiscent of Argentina’s Alberto Fernández, Petro criticized exclusionary practices and spoke in favor of regional unity. Nevertheless, such rhetoric did not translate into any emotional closeness with those excluded. The governing Historic Pact coalition maintains clear distance, even as Havana and Managua welcomed Petro’s electoral approach with cautious optimism, particularly regarding social programs prompted by his reforms.
The ex-guerrilla leader and her running mate Francia Márquez appear to sympathize with Petro’s approach, perhaps more so in comparison to Chile’s Gabriel Boric. Boric’s presidency, still young, has emphasized the democratic deficits observed in Cuba, Venezuela, and Nicaragua, while others have remained comparatively quiet. The strongest bond between Petro and Boric may lie not just in tackling social challenges and state role, but in addressing environmental concerns that hold special importance for both leaders.
The responsibility of voters in Brazil is expanding beyond national borders. It is a regional responsibility that echoes across the hemisphere, as reflected in a public post: pic.twitter.com/98y1XaEfGq
– Eduardo Bolsonaro [citation]
a pending discussion
Petro’s electoral victory party has become a notable platform for dialogue among prospective colleagues. The president-elect urged a coalition of Latin American progressives to explore how they might confront a future shaped by climate change. Oil accounts for roughly 10% of Colombia’s revenue, yet Petro argues that it is essential to stop prioritizing social justice and redistribution based on high oil and gas prices that threaten long-term human viability. The message highlights several nations—Mexico, Venezuela, Bolivia, Argentina, and Brazil—where hydrocarbons or monoculture crops like soy can drive land degradation, deforestation, and livestock cultivation.
Petro proposed building the future around agrarian reform, agribusiness, and leveraging knowledge. The aim, as described, is a Latin America that avoids deductive traps and instead pursues practical regional cooperation. There is a sense that the region seeks to align with a more energy-transition oriented path, paired with mutual support from the United States to ease the transition.
chilean mirror
In Boric’s case, Petro faces a familiar dilemma: limits to implementing bold electoral programs. Boric’s popularity has waned due to a combative social media environment and lofty expectations that proved difficult to meet. Today’s triumph could become tomorrow’s setback, and the upcoming September 4 referendum on a new constitutional framework could become a major obstacle for the left government. After the elections, business leaders in Chile and Colombia began to signal skepticism about Petro’s plan, with Fernández in Argentina and others of similar standing noting the economic strain from heavy foreign debt and alignments with the United States and the IMF. Polls suggest a rightward shift could recur in 2023, potentially reshaping the regional political map at critical junctures.
Progressivism, when it shows a shared attitude, often gravitates toward opening trade with China. In the first quarter of 2021, trade growth surged by 45.5 percent, reaching substantial levels that remain a focal point for Washington—yet the broader geopolitical conversation extends beyond that single concern, touching on regional stability and economic diversification.