New government data reveal a continued drop in Japan’s child population, painting a stark picture for the country’s demographic future and its public pension system. As the new fiscal year began on April 1, the number of residents under 15 stood at 14.65 million, down 250,000 from the year before and the smallest figure since measurement began in 1950. At that moment, boys numbered 7.51 million and girls 7.15 million. The share of children in the overall population fell to a record 11.7 percent, a tenth lower than the prior year and marking the forty-first consecutive year of decline.
International comparison places Japan at the bottom among 35 large economies in terms of child share. United Nations data show Japan trailing Italy, which sits at 12.9 percent, and South Korea at 11.9 percent. Within the country, the group aged 12 to 14 accounts for 3.23 million, while children aged up to two total 2.51 million, signaling a shrinking birth cadence and a rise in population aging that pressures social services and long-term care planning.
As of October 1, 2021, every prefecture in Japan recorded a year-by-year decline in its child population for the first time since 1999. Among the regions, Okinawa in the southwest has the highest share of minors at 16.5 percent, while Akita in the north shows the lowest at 9.5 percent. This geographic disparity mirrors broader national trends and highlights how rural areas confront steeper demographic shifts alongside urban centers.
Historical context shows Japan’s child population reaching 29.89 million in 1954, with a brief resurgence in the early 1970s, followed by a steady decline beginning in 1982. The long arc of this trend reflects higher life expectancy, delayed family formation, and social and economic factors that shape family planning decisions. The ongoing decrease in youth cohorts is a key driver of Japan’s aging society, influencing everything from housing markets to workforce composition and public finance considerations.
For readers in Canada and the United States, the Japanese experience underscores the importance of monitoring demographic shifts in aging societies and the implications for pension systems, healthcare, and economic vitality. Analysts note that while North American countries face different birth dynamics, the pressures of aging populations and workforce sustainability are shared concerns. Policy discussions in Japan—ranging from childcare support and parental leave to investment in elder care infrastructure—offer potential lessons for other nations navigating similar demographic transitions. The data underscore a broader global conversation about sustainable population growth, social safety nets, and the resilience of public programs in societies with rapidly aging populations.