The numbers are not about faith or belief. In the three-year period from 2019 to 2021, about 109,000 migrants landed on Italy’s coast. This figure, from the Italian Ministry of the Interior, is nearly matched by arrivals through the same route in 2022, with numbers already exceeding 100,000. Around 30,000 people have arrived since October, compared with 21,000 in 2021. The contrast is clear: in 2022 the government was led by a different administration, while today the executive is headed by Giorgia Meloni, backed by Matteo Salvini and Silvio Berlusconi of the League and Forza Italia respectively.
Italy has a history of surprises on this front. Meloni, a figure formed in the shadow of Italian neo-fascist roots, rose to power on a pledge to curb irregular migration. During the campaign in September, migration became a central issue, and by November she was elected prime minister. She faced international friction early on, including a standoff with France after refusing entry to 200 migrants who had boarded a humanitarian vessel, a dispute that strained relations between the two nations and remains unresolved.
Despite political turbulence, migrants continue to take the risk of crossing the central Mediterranean in search of safety. Today this route remains the busiest in the world for asylum-seekers and migrants, as reflected in UNHCR maps. The journeys also persist from Morocco to Spain, with Turkey and Greece occupying another critical corridor in the region.
energy crisis
This year Italy has seen arrivals of migrants on small boats from many North African countries such as Algeria, Tunisia, Libya and Egypt, and even a handful from Greece and Turkey, according to UNHCR. The trend shows people moving toward southern Europe, with Italy taking a significant role. Notably, the first groups of disembarked migrants come from countries not typically associated with armed conflict, including Egypt, Tunisia, and Bangladesh, underscoring a broader economic pull and safety concerns.
The reasons behind this trend are not completely clear, though many experts point to the energy crisis and rising food insecurity in vulnerable nations. On the political front, Meloni’s approach to irregular migration has been assertive, and at the end of December a new decree allowed authorities to issue fines and seize NGO ships operating in the Mediterranean, and to enforce boundaries more strictly. The government argued these steps were in line with international law and the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, clarifying how rescue missions can be handled by authorities and NGOs alike. UN Convention on the Law of the Sea.
Meanwhile, negotiations with the European Union to reform migration agreements have yet to yield a definitive outcome, a fact observers attribute to Italy having far fewer refugees than Germany and roughly half the refugees of France. A recent report by the Unipolis Institute in collaboration with Demos suggests that only a small fraction of Italians view the situation as an emergency. In short, concerns today center more on public health and economic stability than on a sudden migrant surge.
A country that needs immigrants
The data landscape remains complex. Italy’s most recent ISTAT census for 2021 shows the population continuing to decline, with a loss of about 200,000 people last year and a trend ongoing since 2015. Even with ongoing immigration, the annual inflow is not enough to stop the overall decline.
In response to this demographic reality, Alfredo Mantovano, Undersecretary of the Council of Ministers, highlighted the need for more workers to sustain the production system. He suggested that the country would require more than 80,000 non-EU workers to support key sectors, including tourism, which have faced staffing shortages in recent years.