Levent Kurnaz, director of the Bogazici University Climate Change Research Center, has warned that portions of Istanbul could eventually be submerged as the Marmara Sea rises. The prediction aligns with broader scientific consensus that global ocean levels are climbing due to the ongoing loss of glaciers and the thermal expansion of seawater as the planet warms. This is not a distant scenario for a city known for its dramatic shoreline and intricate waterway system; it represents a real, locally impactful risk that could reshape neighborhoods, infrastructure, and cultural landmarks.
Kurnaz explained that if current trends continue, the Marmara Sea is projected to rise by roughly half a meter by the middle of this century. Such a rise would alter the coastline and threaten coastal properties along the Bosphorus and in the Kadıköy district, potentially changing a familiar urban landscape into one with new baselines for flood risk, drainage, and coastal management. The implications extend beyond private residences to public amenities, roads, and essential services that bustle along the waterfront and its approaches.
The expert underscored that the risk is not uniform. Areas close to sea level, including entrances and transit points, are particularly vulnerable. Specifically, the Kadıköy station area sits at elevations that could make parts of the access peninsula and surrounding infrastructure susceptible to inundation before 2050 if protective measures are delayed or inadequate. The scenario emphasizes the need for integrated coastal defenses, proactive land-use planning, and adaptive infrastructure that can absorb and adapt to changing water levels while maintaining accessibility and safety for residents and visitors alike.
Beyond immediate flood protection, Kurnaz stressed the importance of preserving Istanbul’s cultural heritage amid rising seas. Key palaces and historic districts along the Bosphorus can face direct threats to their foundations, with Dolmabahçe, Çırağan, and other sites requiring thoughtful protection strategies. Building seawalls, elevating critical access points, and implementing nature-based solutions could be part of a broader resilience blueprint designed to shield both everyday life and the city’s globally significant cultural assets from future water pressures.
In discussing the broader climate context, the scientist noted that rising sea levels are part of a multi-faceted pattern driven by global warming. As ice sheets shrink and ocean temperatures climb, the volume of water in coastal seas expands, contributing to higher baseline water levels even during calm conditions. This trend, coupled with potential changes in storm intensities and precipitation, creates a complex risk matrix for coastal cities around the world, including Istanbul. The conversation also touches on how urban planning, emergency preparedness, and community engagement must evolve together to manage risk, protect vulnerable populations, and preserve the city’s distinctive character for generations to come.
Source attributions: [Source: Bogazici University Climate Change Research Center].
Vladimir Ryabov, associated with the Vernadsky Institute and noted as a climatologist with ties to academic networks, cautioned that if average Earth temperatures rise by more than about one and a half degrees Celsius within the next thirty years, humanity could confront a cascade of extreme natural events. While such forecasts are subject to uncertainty and informed by ongoing climate modeling, the underlying message is clear: proactive adaptation and emission reductions are essential to mitigating the most severe outcomes. The collaboration of climate researchers, urban planners, and policymakers is vital to translating scientific insight into practical resilience measures for cities like Istanbul and other coastal regions facing similar trajectories.