Rising seas are reshaping small island nations such as Kiribati and Tuvalu, where climate change threatens land and livelihoods. To protect regions like the Maldives and the Marshall Islands, scientists argue that land must rise by six meters or more in the long run. This scenario is shaping urgent conversations about climate resilience and adaptation strategies around the world.
According to the IPCC’s sixth assessment report, by the middle of this century as many as 1 billion people could face heightened flood risk. With sea levels climbing and storm surges intensifying, tidal flooding could become more frequent, and some areas may experience permanent inundation. The implications extend beyond water and coastline to everyday life, food security, and economic stability for communities worldwide.
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres, at a recent meeting of the UN Security Council, warned that sea level rise driven by climate change poses a direct threat to millions and could trigger mass displacement on an unprecedented scale. The prospect of large-scale migration highlights complex social challenges, including cultural changes, identity concerns, integration issues, and job uncertainty, as noted by researchers at the University of East Anglia in the UK.
In the Maldives, which has a population around 500,000, more than 80 percent of its territory on its many islands sits less than one meter above sea level. The researchers contend that preserving this land over the long term will require strategies to elevate it above rising waters.
Island climate refugees
With current projections of sea level rise, up to 200 inhabited natural islands in the Maldives could be at risk of submersion by 2100. The study presents a somber view: forced migration and the abandonment of atolls and entire countries could become the defining response to rising seas, producing climate refugees among island communities.
Images of coastal life on Maldivian islands, including resort and urban areas, underscore the urgency for adaptive solutions. A recent photograph from Hulhumalé illustrates ongoing land development that mirrors the need to balance tourism, urban growth, and environmental stewardship.
Researchers note that many atoll nations are highly vulnerable to climate impacts. While strong mitigation efforts can slow the pace of sea level rise, adaptation will be essential for centuries to come. Urbanization compounds the challenge by concentrating populations in a few centers, particularly near capital islands, intensifying pressure on land-poor regions.
The authors argue that structural adaptation through land elevation and the formation of artificial islands could preserve land area and meet social and economic needs for generations. The Maldives, especially around Malé, serves as a case study where rapid urban development and migration to urban centers are already evident, with broader implications for other island communities facing similar pressures.
Innovative and positive solutions
Using sand quarried from the sea, the Maldives has constructed several artificial islands, including Hulhumalé beside Malé, with plans for additional land to accommodate urban growth and a expanding tourism sector. The researchers stress that tourism remains a key pillar of the Maldivian economy, and that soft engineering approaches should reinforce natural processes that form atolls, preserving ecological balance while expanding habitable land.
As land grows and sea levels rise, these technologies must address broader political, human, physical, engineering, and economic-financial challenges. Providing a gradual, managed relocation and land uplift strategy can be a feasible alternative to abrupt migration, one that maintains community presence on island homes and supports continued economic activity.
The cost of sand and land uplift is a consideration. While estimates vary, the study notes that sand costs are a factor in scaling up land elevation efforts, which underscores the need for careful planning and sustainable funding models.
The ideas presented are intended as a starting point for developing island communities. They offer a framework for development and adaptation that could allow island populations to persist for centuries. Importantly, the authors remind readers that creating artificial land is not a substitute for climate action; ongoing efforts to reduce emissions remain essential to lowering future risks. A broader, environment-centered approach will require ongoing research and careful environmental assessment to ensure long-term viability.
Cited work: Environmental Research: Climate, 2023. The discussion reflects ongoing scholarly work on climate adaptation for island nations and the potential role of land elevation and artificial landmasses in resilience planning.
Note: The environmental department emphasizes careful evaluation of impacts and the need for multidisciplinary collaboration to address the many layers of challenges that accompany adaptation on islands and coastal regions.