One of the anticipated outcomes of climate change is rising sea levels, which could significantly impact economies. In Spain alone, projections indicate a potential loss of nearly 50 billion euros by the end of the century, translating to about a 0.88% drop in GDP. The hardest hit regions are expected to be Galicia, Cantabria, and the Basque Country, followed by other coastal communities.
These findings appear in a study published in a peer‑reviewed journal on the economic effects of sea level rise in European Union member states and the United Kingdom. The analysis assumes current levels of climate adaptation and mitigation efforts remain in place, offering a baseline for assessing potential consequences if measures do not intensify.
Looking at the broader picture for the EU and the UK, the study estimates a cumulative GDP decline of about 1.26 percent by the end of the century, equating to roughly €871.8 billion. The projected impact is shaped by rising sea levels and the varying vulnerability of different regions and sectors across Europe.
Most affected
The researchers identify Cantabria as the region facing the largest GDP decrease due to sea level rise, with an estimated 3.82% drop. Galicia and the Basque Country are both projected to lose around 2.89%, followed by the Canary Islands at about 1.83%, Asturias at 1.54%, and the Valencian Community at 1.19%. These figures reflect the direct economic sensitivity of coastal and near‑coastal areas to higher sea levels and associated hazards.
Among the sectors most exposed to sea level rise, the study highlights logistics, transportation, agriculture, construction, utilities, and related industrial activities. These sectors are likely to experience disruptions and increased costs as water ingress, flooding, and infrastructure wear take their toll.
One of the researchers, a scholar from the University of Delft, notes that the analysis also considers inland areas where the effects of sea level rise can be felt indirectly through shifts in economic activity. It is important to recognize that a large portion of Europe’s population lives inland, underscoring the wide reach of coastal risk.
‘Winning’ regions
The study also points to regions that may gain economically from a shift of activity away from coastlines toward inland areas. In Spain, regions such as Extremadura, Castilla La Mancha, and Castilla y León could see modest GDP gains by the end of the century as economic activity relocates away from coastal zones. Additional interior regions, including Madrid, Aragon, La Rioja, and Navarra, are also expected to benefit from this inland economic redistribution.
Overall, the study suggests Spain is unlikely to be among the European nations hardest hit by sea level rise, provided that policy makers implement stronger adaptation measures. Countries such as Italy, Poland, and Greece are highlighted as more vulnerable if current efforts do not intensify. In Italy, for example, Veneto and Emilia‑Romagna may face substantial losses, while Poland’s West Pomerania region could experience marked GDP reductions by 2100.
Conversely, interior regions in some neighboring countries could see regional GDP rise by as much as 1% due to the relocation of economic activity away from coasts.
Adaptation is very important
The analysis emphasizes that adaptation plays a crucial role. A notable example is the Netherlands, which shows relatively low negative impact thanks to robust coast protection and proactive planning. While the study focuses on sea level rise, it also acknowledges that other climate hazards such as floods, droughts, and fires are increasing in frequency and severity, which could compound economic effects if not addressed.
The lead researchers stress the need for region‑specific economic policies to address uneven impacts across regions and their unique economic structures. To form a clearer picture, the team integrated their economic models with expected sea level rise impacts, investment trends, and the historical distribution of flood losses across Europe during 1995–2016. They also explored scenarios with no sea level rise and a baseline 2% annual growth to compare potential losses and gains.