The decline in inflation continues at a moderate pace, helped by lower commodity prices for fuels and electricity. Food prices, while rising, remained about 9% higher than in 2022, with a 66.7% annual jump observed in November. Olives and olive oil saw price movements, and November featured a decrease in prices for bread and cereals as well as for milk, eggs, and cheese.
Overall inflation stood at 3.2% in November, down three tenths from October and far from the 6% annual peak recorded in February. This figure aligns with the data published by the National Institute of Statistics, confirming the forecast for a 3.2% November inflation rate. As a result, the 2024 pension increase is projected to be 3.8%, reflecting the average of the CPI chain rates over the past year.
The institute also confirmed that seven out of ten components showed a decline, with inflation now down to 4.5%. Core inflation, which excludes the most volatile energy and unprocessed food prices, marked its lowest level since April of the previous year.
Monthly evolution
In November the Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell by 0.4% month over month, driven by lower food prices, fuels, and travel packages. Energy costs and other components did not offset the drop, and the overall decline was less pronounced than in November 2022, when prices had fallen more sharply after a peak in 2022.
Within the food and non-alcoholic beverages category, prices rose slightly by 0.1% compared with October. This modest increase was smaller than the gain seen in November 2022 (0.5%), contributing to the continued moderation of annual inflation. Food prices reached as high as 9%, remaining five-tenths below October’s 9.5% and approaching the February peak of 16.6%.
From the perspective of the Ministry of Economy, the policy measures implemented by the government have supported a downward trajectory for general inflation over the year. This environment helps salaries maintain purchasing power and allows firms to improve competitiveness and capture market share in the face of a challenging international context.