Ice loss along West Antarctica’s Amundsen Sea: a sobering trend through three decades

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Coastal glaciers in the Amundsen Sea have shed about 3,000 billion tons of ice over the last 25 years, a finding supported by researchers at the University of Leeds. This pattern is not just a local concern; it echoes a broader narrative about how ice sheets respond to climate forces and what that means for global sea levels.

In a study led by Benjamin Davison, scientists developed methods to forecast the mass balance of the Amundsen Sea region in West Antarctica. Mass balance describes the tipping point between snowfall adding snow and ice and the loss of ice as icebergs calve and drift away. When ablation outpaces accumulation, the ice sheet weakens and sea levels can rise. This framework helps scientists quantify how much ice remains stable and how much is set to disappear under varying conditions.

From 1996 to 2021, total ice mass in West Antarctica declined by roughly 3.331 billion tons. That loss corresponds to a global sea level rise of more than nine millimeters. To put that in perspective, if all the lost ice from this region were poured into London, the resultant column would tower more than 2 kilometers high. Ocean temperature shifts, along with changing ocean currents, are considered central drivers of the observed ice loss.

Meanwhile, the pattern of snowfall plays a crucial role in this balance. Periods with low snowfall contribute to faster ice retreat. For instance, scientists described 2009 to 2013 as a period of a “snow drought,” during which the lack of heavy snowfall accelerated ice depletion along the Amundsen Sea coast, increasing ice loss by about a quarter compared with years with average snowfall. By contrast, winters in 2019 and 2020 delivered exceptionally heavy snowfall. Analysts note that the ice loss in the current year was reduced by roughly half relative to the long-term average due to these extreme snowy conditions.

Looking ahead, researchers see no clear signs that this negative trend will reverse in the near term. The combination of atmospheric warming, shifting ocean temperatures, and renewed snowfall variability suggests continued vulnerability for this coastline. The release of ice and the response of surrounding seas will likely keep contributing to fluctuations in global sea levels and regional ocean conditions for years to come.

Earlier work also shows that coffee plantations can impact forest birds by reducing their preferred caterpillar food sources, illustrating how diverse ecological systems respond to human and natural changes across landscapes.

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