this IBEX 35 opened this Thursday’s session with a modest gain of 0.33%, a move that left the index hovering near the 7,881.5 level just after 9:01 a.m. as traders awaited a crucial update from the European Central Bank. Investors were focused on the ECB meeting and the potential decision on interest rates, hoping for guidance that could shape the trajectory of inflation and borrowing costs in the euro area.
In Madrid, analysts at Bankinter expect the central bank to announce a rate increase of 75 basis points, a larger move than the originally anticipated 50 basis points, with the goal of delivering a clear message and reducing uncertainty as soon as possible. They noted that a 50-basis-point hike without a well-defined forward path could leave markets unsettled and extend the period of price volatility. The assessment underscores the pressure on policymakers to act decisively in the face of persistent inflation pressures across the bloc.
Following a 0.1% gain in yesterday’s close, the Madrid market found renewed strength, preserving the round psychological level near 7,800 points and turning positive again as traders weighed the ECB outlook against global earnings trends and regional growth signals. The session’s early trading set a tone of cautious optimism, with investors scanning sector performance for clues on the near-term direction of risk assets and interest-rate expectations.
Among the biggest movers in the opening stages, Grifols led the gains with approximately 2.41%, followed by BBVA around 1.6%, ArcelorMittal about 1.51%, Santander near 0.92%, Amadeus at 0.56%, and Sacyr around 0.5%. On the downside, Inditex slipped about 1.1%, Telefónica fell roughly 0.82%, Enagás shed around 0.57%, and Red Eléctrica declined about 0.55%. These moves highlighted a mixed risk environment where defensive names and cyclical names were reacting to differing interpretations of the ECB’s stance and domestic earnings momentum.
The broader European map followed suit with a positive tone as European stock exchanges opened higher: Frankfurt advanced around 0.6%, Paris about 0.4%, and London roughly 0.3%. The day’s directional bias suggested investors were pricing in a degree of policy clarity from the ECB, even as other macro factors like inflation surprises and geopolitical developments remained in focus.
Commodity markets also reflected a cautious but constructive mood. The Brent crude benchmark traded near $88 per barrel, modestly higher by about 0.9%, while the Texas Intermediate benchmark posted a roughly 0.8% gain to around $82. The move in oil prices supported energy-related stocks in several markets, contributing to a broader sense of stabilization in commodity-linked segments.
In currency markets, the euro held steady against the dollar, with the risk premium measured at around 117 basis points. The yield on the Spanish 10-year bond stood near 2.701%, while the corresponding U.S. dollar yield hovered around 0.9999 for the moment. These readings reflected a complex mix of monetary policy expectations, inflation dynamics, and the relative appeal of fixed-income assets in a world of shifting interest-rate paths.